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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAICS USAGE AMONG
CALIFORNIA HOMEOWNERS 2006-2011

by
Aaron Litwak

A Thesis: Essay of Distinction
Submitted in partial fulfillment
of the requirements for the degree
Master of Environmental Studies
The Evergreen State College
September 2011

©2011 by Aaron Litwak. All rights reserved.

This Thesis for the Master of Environmental Study Degree
by
Aaron Litwak

has been approved for
The Evergreen State College
by

________________________
Kathleen Saul

________________________
Date

ABSTRACT
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAICS USAGE AMONG
CALIFORNIA HOMEOWNERS 2006-2011
Aaron Litwak
During any brief perusal through the literature on solar photovoltaics (PV), one is
sure to quickly encounter a reference to their “large up-front cost.” But while the
technology slowly becomes cheaper and more widespread, some governments, especially
Germany, Japan, and the state of California, are not waiting for PV’s price to fall below
the price of fossil fuel-based electricity. Rebate programs have been used to encourage
deployment of solar PV, and some have tried new financial innovations. The city of
Berkeley in particular tried implementing its idea of tying the cost of a household PV unit
to the home’s property tax payment. The financial obligation is paid off over a period of
twenty years, and it stays with the home if the present owner moves. California in
general has adopted a large PV rebate program. Following President Clinton’s 1997
Million Solar Roofs initiative, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger approved a
similar initiative in 2006 to promote PV usage among California homes, businesses, and
local government and non-profit entities.
This thesis looks at the people who participated in California’s rebate program.
In lieu of a questionnaire or survey, a regression test was performed with two large data
sets. California Census data from 2000 and, in separate tests, data from the American
Community Survey 2005-2009, were used as the explanatory variable. Go Solar
California residential PV unit data were used as the response variable. In general, a
portrait is painted of a middle-class, mostly white California resident who has adapted his
or her lifestyle to avoid the harsh California metropolitan commutes.
While it is probably too early to brand the California rebate program a success or
failure in the conventional economic sense of the word, it is strongly recommended that
Washington State adopt similar measures, using rebates and high feed-in tariffs to
encourage businesses and homeowners to generate their own power, and to feed excess
power back into the grid using solar PV technology. This energy strategy has the
potential for multiple long-term benefits: as a means to help slow down rising energy
costs, a means to create local green energy jobs, and to help counteract the effects of
global warming and climate change by preventing the release of greenhouse gases.

Table of Contents
CHAPTER ONE: A BRIEF HISTORY OF SOLAR PV FOR THE HOME
…....................1
1980s …............................................................................................................................2
1990s …............................................................................................................................5
2000s …............................................................................................................................8
Students
…................................................................................................11
2010s …..........................................................................................................................12
Students
…................................................................................................16
2011 and beyond
…................................................................................................18
CHAPTER TWO: A BRIEF PRIMER ON ECONOMICS
.…….……...….............……..19
Germany and Japan
…................................................................................................20
Japan ….............................................................................................................21
Germany
…................................................................................................22
California - The Berkeley FIRST program
….........................................................23
MASH & SASH
…................................................................................................25
Power Purchase Agreements
…...................................................................................27
CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY…...................................................................................29
Data Set 1: California Census Data, Year 2000 – Summary File 3 Files …..................29
Java to the Rescue
…................................................................................................31
Census Variables
…................................................................................................31
Data Set 2: The American Community Survey, 2005-2009:
5 Year Summary Files …...................................................................................32
CHAPTER FOUR: RESULTS OF STATISTICAL ANALYSIS …......………….............…….33
Geographic Mobility …................................................................................................33
Ethnicity categories
…................................................................................................34
Household Income
…................................................................................................37
Modes of Transportation to Work
…......................................................................40
Occupations
….............................................................................................................41
Year Structure Built
…................................................................................................42
Census 2000 …................................................................................................42
ACS 2005-2009…................................................................................................43
Units in Structure
…................................................................................................43
German and Japanese …................................................................................................44
Summary
….............................................................................................................45
CHAPTER FIVE: A POST-RESULTS LITERATURE REVIEW…............................................46
Australia
….............................................................................................................46
Ireland …..........................................................................................................................49
Finland …..........................................................................................................................51
The motorcycle ….............................................................................................................54
Germany
….............................................................................................................57
Japan …..........................................................................................................................58
Summary
….............................................................................................................60
iv

CHAPTER SIX: CONCLUSIONS

…...................................................................................61

References
…..........................................................................................................................65
Appendix A: Getting variable names for the California Census 2000 data, and for ACS 20052009 data
…..........................................................................................................................81
Appendix B: Abbreviations / Acronyms …...................................................................................82

v

List of Figures
Figure 1. Insolation map of the United States.
Courtesy of National Renewable Energy Lab
…..............................................2
Figure 2. The University of Colorado's 2002 Solar Decathlon entry
….................................9
Figure 3. The effect of a subsidy on price and quantity ….........................................................19
Figure 4. PV installations in Japan 1994-2001. (Source: Bolinger and Wiser)
…..................21
Figure 5. Map of PV installations in California …......................................................................30
Figure 6. Eco-Viikki. Photo courtesy of the Ministry of the Environment,
City of Helsinki …................................................................................................53
List of Tables
Table 1.
Table 2.
Table 3.
Table 4.
Table 5.
Table 6.
Table 7.
Table 8.
Table 9.

Census 2000/County/Residential category - highest r2 values …...............................34
Census 2000/City/Residential category - highest r2 values
…...............................35
Census 2000/County/Non-Profit category - highest r2 values …...............................36
Census 2000/City/Non-Profit category - highest r2 values
…...............................37
ACS 2005-2009/County/Residential category - highest r2 values
…..................38
ACS 2005-2009/City/Residential category - highest r2 values …...............................39
ACS 2005-2009/County/Non-Profit category - highest r2 values
...…...............40
ACS 2005-2009/City/Non-Profit category - highest r2 values ..………….............…41
German- and Japanese-related r2 values
….........................................................44

vi

Acknowledgments
I want to thank two Johns: John Perkins and John Maclean. I also thank Gretchen
Gooding at the Census Bureau for answering my many emails. Special thanks to my mom and
dad and brother Morgan, without whom this thesis wouldn’t have been possible from the bottom
up. Thanks also to Judy Cushing and everyone at the MES program at The Evergreen State
College, without whom this thesis wouldn’t have been possible from the top down. Last but not
least, I owe an extra special debt of gratitude to my thesis reader Kathleen Saul, and if this thesis
results in any subsequent employment, the payback shall begin in earnest.

vii

CHAPTER ONE
A BRIEF HISTORY OF SOLAR PV FOR THE HOME

Some of the reasons homeowners turn to solar PV as an alternative source of
electricity have remained consistent over the years: environmental concerns foremost,
and economic concerns secondary, given its traditional high up-front cost. An energy
efficiency audit for the home, therefore, has typically been a first step towards getting a
home PV system.1 It is also the first prerequisite of the Go Solar California rebate
program,2 since the paybacks of energy efficiency improvements are often realized more
quickly than those for a PV system.
What has changed, since the 1990’s, is the notion of PV as a complete alternative
to, and escape from, the power grid, as opposed to its potential partner. Additionally, as
PV technology has improved, reaching greater efficiencies and cheaper production costs,
the idea of feeding power back into the grid and getting paid for it has taken hold. Even
Clint Eastwood wanted some credit for the surplus power that his Tehama country club
fed back to the grid.3 In 2001 Eastwood visited then Governor of California Gray Davis
to endorse a bill that would allow schools, nonprofits and businesses to receive credit for
the wind and solar energy they've contributed to the state's power grid. 4
Concerns raised in the national spotlight about the reliability of our domestic
energy supply has tended to be favorable for solar, if only in theory. Tensions in the
Middle East, especially high-profile events such as the OPEC oil embargo of 1973 and
the Persian Gulf war of 1991, have led to short bursts of increased interest in solar PV
usage. High-profile nuclear power-related disasters, 5 or even local concerns about
1

Hinds, M. The New York Times: New York, NY. An energy audit of a typical row house. 08
Jan 1981.
2

Step 1: Energy Efficiency Audit. (http://www.gosolarcalifornia.ca.gov/csi/step1.php)

3

Associated Press. Telegraph-Herald: Dubuque, IA. People. 28 Mar 2001.

4

Hochschild, D. The Los Angeles Times: Los Angeles, CA. PUBLIC UTILITIES; Power Play:
Big Energy vs. Solar. 11 Aug 2002. AB 58, a net-metering bill sponsored by then Assemblyman
Fred Keeley, was apparently watered down by the local utility companies, who were opposed to
net-metering at the time. California at large, of course, was still recovering from the deregulation
of the electric utilities in 1996, which culminated in rolling blackouts and the collapse of Enron in
2001.
5

United Press International (UPI). Energy Resources: Japan’s nuclear disaster boosts

1

Figure 1. Insolation map of the United States. Courtesy of National Renewable Energy
Lab.
storage of nuclear waste, have helped to raise awareness of solar as a cleaner, safer
alternative. But despite the recent technological strides PV has made, the sheer numbers
in terms of cost per kilowatt are still generally in nuclear’s favor. 6
What follows is a brief overview of how solar PV for the home has changed over
the past thirty years. In general, solar PV has become cheaper, more powerful, more
reliable and more technologically diverse, as have the secondary technologies involved
with it, mostly inverters, or devices that convert the direct current (DC) produced by solar
panels into the more commonly used alternating current (AC). Interest in, and usage of,
solar PV over this time frame seems to be on an exponential rise.
1980s
Despite the OPEC oil embargo of 1973-74, the typical American home was not
only still an energy hog, but also an energy sieve because of poor design, poor
craftsmanship and inadequate materials. “There are people walking around today who
still don't seem to believe there is an energy shortage,” said Charles Schwing, president
renewables. 21 Mar 2011. (http://www.upi.com/Business_News/EnergyResources/2011/03/21/Japans-nuclear-disaster-boosts-renewables/UPI28501300714143/#ixzz1HJPwVWKa)
6

Mansur, S. The Breakthrough Institute. Doing the Math: Comparing Germany's Solar Industry
to Japan's Fukushima Reactors. 23 Mar 2011.
(http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2011/03/doing_the_math_comparing_germa.shtml)

2

of the American Institute of Architects, “and our homes reflect it.” 7
But the government was starting to respond to our dependence on foreign oil, if
only slowly. Federal tax credits for solar PV and other alternative energy sources were
enacted into law under the National Energy Act of 1978. 8 But at a cost of about $100 per
watt-hour of energy produced, solar technology for terrestrial applications was still well
within the realm of science fiction. 9 (By comparison, the cost of solar PV electricity in
2008 was estimated by Zweibel at 17 cents per kWh, or 0.017 cents per watt-hour. 10) The
tax credits were due to be phased out in 1985, and the Washington DC-based Solar
Energy Industries Association supported this. "We don't want to be in the solar tax credit
business," SEIA Executive Vice President David Gorin said. "We think the phase-out is
the way to do it."11 Most in the industry, however, wanted the credits extended, and for
good reason. The price of oil dropped in the early 1980’s and, consequently, so did
interest in solar power.12 Looking back, an article from the Los Angeles Times refers to
“the solar massacre of 1985”: 13
“Everybody and their brother was manufacturing or installing solar
equipment,” recalled Mike Gallant, owner of Generic Electric in Orange
(California). “After tax credits ended, it was a matter of months and the
entire industry had been shaken out.”
Gallant is a survivor of the solar massacre of 1985. Dozens of
companies failed, big marketing firms washed their hands of the solar
industry, and a once enthusiastic public ran back into the welcoming
7

Hinds, M. The New York Times: New York, NY. Despite a trend toward energy conservation,
new houses are called energy sieves. 28 Dec 1980.
8

Wald, M.L. The New York Times: New York, N.Y. Solar power’s future unclear as tax credit
faces end. 30 Dec 1985.
9

Scanlon, M. Living off the grid: 1994 guide to solar power for home owners. Mother Earth
News: Dec. 1993.
10

Zweibel, K., Institute for Analysis of Solar Energy, George Washington University. PV
Innovation. (p.20, http://solar.gwu.edu/index_files/Resources_files/Innovation%20in
%20PV_KZ.pdf)
11

Rivera, N. The Los Angeles Times: Los Angeles, CA. Solar Tax Credit extension sought:
Industry fears that lapse would mean serious setback. 12 Mar 1985.
12

Rierden, A. The New York Times: New York, NY. Homeowners revive interest in solar
power. 25 Aug 1991.
13

Clark, S. The Los Angeles Times: Los Angeles, CA. Solar Energy comeback: Companies
hope to bring the sun back into homes. 15 Sep 1990.

3

arms of the Southern California Gas Co. for its home heating needs. It
seemed that the great solar experiment had gone into eclipse.

The Carter Administration did manage to make a small solar footprint with eight
demonstration projects scattered around the country, designed to promote solar PV
during the energy crisis. As the energy crisis waned, however, the projects were shut
down, except for one at Beverly High School in Beverly, Massachusetts, which was
saved by the city and volunteers.14
For homeowners during the 1980’s, solar PV was seen more as a means to escape
being connected to the grid entirely rather than as a complement to it. However, in 1989
one enterprising homeowner, Frank Poust, found that his PV system of 66 panels wasn’t
enough to make a complete break from the grid, so for power at night he added a battery
backup consisting of 32 six-volt batteries. The return on investment for his complete
system was estimated at 8.5 years. 15 Others were even more innovative, utilizing solar
PV to power individual appliances. In 1986, in addition to using a solar cooker, solarpowered battery rechargers and solar panels to heat a hot tub, William Becker used solar
panels to charge a battery for an electric bicycle. 16
If a homeowner wanted to use conventional appliances in a PV-powered house,
such as a refrigerator or a dishwasher, they would need an inverter, a device that turns the
direct current generated by solar PV panels into alternating current that runs an appliance.
The inverters of the time were ill-equipped to handle the power needs of large appliances,
until Trace Engineering17 developed a special surge-proof inverter in 1985, thereby
revolutionizing the home-power industry. 18 Devices such as solar-powered attic fans,
14

Leighton, P. The Salem News: Salem, Mass. Solar field at Beverly High due for major
upgrade. 15 May 2009. (http://www.salemnews.com/local/x1690076982/Solar-field-at-BeverlyHigh-due-for-major-upgrade)
15

Beauge, J. The Patriot-News: Harrisburg, PA. Gutsy home builder bets on sun, skips
commercial power; No electric lines to this Lycoming house. 29 Jan 1989.
16

Ritter, J. The Chicago Sun-Times: Chicago, IL. Solar man wants world to see the light on
power. 08 Jun 1986.
17

Trace Engineering is now owned by Xantrex (http://www.xantrex.com).

18

Scanlon, M. Living off the grid: 1994 guide to solar power for home owners. Mother Earth
News: Dec. 1993.

4

outdoor lighting, and solar water heating technology started to experience a resurgence
by the end of the ‘80s.19
Mostly dominating the “headlines” during this period, however, were tales of
passive and active solar heating, with greenhouses attached to some homes to help lower
winter heating bills.20 During the 1980-1981 school year, students at Shawsheen Valley
Technical Vocational High School21 helped to build a house in North Tewksbury,
Massachusetts that incorporated solar heating technology provided by a local company,
which the students helped install. The prospective owners made this atypical choice of
housing because it saved them money compared to a conventional contractor, and
because the students’ work came highly recommended by other recipients of the students’
work.22
1990s
Germany and Japan started PV incentive programs in the early 1990’s. Most of
Japan’s capacity was the result of a residential buy-down program, while Germany used a
number of approaches, including rebates, low-interest loans, and a feed-in tariff program
(FiT) with high incentive levels and mandatory purchase requirements by utilities. By
the end of 2000, nearly 320 megawatts (MW) of PV were installed and operational in
Japan, while Germany had 110 MW, making them the first and third largest PV markets
in the world, respectively. 23
In the U.S., Berta Nelson of Norwich, Connecticut wanted to “get off the grid for
good” and had solar panels installed with battery backup in June 1991. Among her
reasons for going solar were concerns about air pollution, storage of the state’s low-level
19

Brooks, A. The Star Tribune: Minneapolis, MN. Use of solar energy devices in homes is back
on the rise. 08 Aug 1992.
20

Stocker, C. The Boston Globe: Boston, Mass. Life in Solar Space. 05 Nov 1982.

21

Now named Shawsheen Valley Technical High School and/or Shawsheen Regional Technical
High School, information on their carpentry program is available at
http://www.shawsheentech.org/vocational-programs/carpentry.html.
22

Pave, M. The Boston Globe: Boston, Mass. High school students building solar house. 25
Dec 1980.
23

Bolinger, M., and Wiser, R. Case Studies of State support for renewable energy: Support for
PV in Japan and Germany. Berkeley Lab and the Clean Energy Group, September 2002.
(http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/emp/cases/PV_in_Japan_Germany.pdf)

5

nuclear waste and the conflict in the Persian Gulf. Said Nelson, “…[w]hen you think
about what we are paying in terms of air pollution and nuclear waste, deciding to go solar
is really out of the domain of money." Before doing this, she made an informal energy
efficiency audit, cutting her energy bill by 80 percent after buying a low-voltage
refrigerator and conserving energy as much as possible. 24
Judi Friedman of People’s Action for Clean Energy25 noticed that the group had
been receiving more inquiries about solar since January 1991, around the time of the first
big bombing campaign of the Persian Gulf War, than they did following the 1970’s oil
shortages. "In the last several years fuel has remained so cheap that the public has been
lulled into not thinking about alternative energy," she said. "Now, however, many people
are seriously considering if our dependence on fossil fuels and nuclear power is really
worth all of the risk." Friedman herself has used a PV panel to operate a pump that
moves water from a pond to an uphill vegetable garden. 26
Strides were also being made towards mainstreaming eco-friendly home design.
In 1993 the National Association of Home Builders built the “Resource Conservation
House.” Located in the NAHB National Research Home Park, it was made with 80%
recycled materials, and featured a solar hot water heater, supplying 80 to 90 percent of
home hot water needs. It also had a photovoltaic system to power the landscape
lighting.27
If PV providers had trouble finding customers in tough times, they could at least
look closer to home for business. John Patterson, president of Mr. Sun Solar 28 in
Portland, Oregon, installed a solar PV system and a solar hot water system on his Johns
Landing-area home. The home also featured an exercise bicycle as a stopgap measure in
case of cloudy weather. A 20-minute aerobic workout can produce about 70 watt-hours enough power to watch television for an hour or operate lights for five hours. 29
24

Rierden, A. The New York Times: New York, NY. Homeowners revive interest in solar
power. 25 Aug 1991.
25

http://www.pace-cleanenergy.org

26

Ibid.

27

Anonymous. Recycled house is builders’ model. BioCycle, June 1993.

28

http://www.mrsunsolar.com

29

Potter, C. The Oregonian: Portland, OR. Solar systems. 26 Feb 1995.

6

In 1997, piggybacking on President Clinton’s “million solar roofs” initiative,
Governor Roy Romer of Colorado encouraged his fellow citizens to install solar panels
on their homes. Romer declared a goal of 1,000 rooftop systems by the year 2000. To
set an example, an 800-watt system was added to the roof of a carriage house adjacent to
the Governor’s mansion. The system was donated by Solarex of Frederick, Maryland, a
company trying to develop markets in Colorado. 30 Meanwhile, Greenpeace campaigned
for solar power in 1997. They collaborated with a housing association to set up three PV
systems on homes in Silvertown in London’s Docklands. 31 Recognizing the large upfront cost of PV, they also called for government grants to help offset this cost. Marcus
Rand, a Greenpeace campaigner, said: "We are calling on the Government to start a
nation-wide solar programme immediately … Just by re-directing the pounds 17m
currently spent on oil, coal and gas industries Britain could have a minimum of 50,000
solar homes by 2010. The Silvertown project shows it's possible."32
Catering to Arizona’s off-grid customers, Arizona Public Service 33 began using
PV to help them provide off-grid power support. For $270 a month (1999 dollars), APS
installed backyard units for customers consisting of solar panels that produced enough
power for most domestic uses, a generator that automatically kicked in on cloudy days,
and a propane tank to back up the generator. The company guaranteed the equipment,
promising to keep power flowing around the clock. This was cheaper compared to the
cost of hooking the customers up to the grid, about $50,000 per mile (1999 dollars).
However, the Arizona plan does raise concerns that the state’s most pristine locations will
become just another suburb, populated by off-grid consumers. 34

30

Frank, T. The Denver Post: Denver, CO. Gov. Sunbeam: Romer launches state solar-energy
drive. 19 Nov 1997.
31

Anonymous. The Independent: London, UK. Solar power comes home. 07 June 1997.

32

Peabody News. (London-based housing association) 2011 to see solar electricity roll out. 06
Jan 2011. The installation of solar panels on selected Peabody blocks and houses is set to begin
this summer. The programme will cost around £23m, funded by energy suppliers through the
government’s clean energy cash back system, which offers incentives for energy producers to
make use of renewable resources. (http://www.peabody.org.uk/news/2011-to-see-solar-electricityroll-out.aspx)
33
http://www.aps.com
34

Bernstein, F. The New York Times: New York, NY. O Spacious Skies, With Nary a Power
Pole in Sight. 23 Sep 1999.

7

2000s
While the Bush Administration emphasized a continued reliance on coal and
nuclear for domestic energy production, Bush himself would eventually have three small
solar systems installed on the White House grounds, and one at his Texas ranch. 35 The
outlook for PV globally was much greater in the early 2000s. According to Hoffman, 36
the global PV industry grew by 27% per year since 1996, with projections of being an
industry worth 100 billion euros by 2030.37
In 2002 the first Solar Decathlon38 was held at the National Mall in Washington,
D.C. Teams of college students from around the world compete to build the best solarpowered house, which also employ banks of batteries for nighttime power needs. The
contest was created by the Department of Energy’s Richard King, saying “There are two
myths about solar energy for homes … One is that it doesn’t work, the other is that it
doesn’t look good. We’re here to prove the opposite.”39
More than 100,000 people visited the event at the National Mall. In addition to
the main award, many other awards were given, and each co-sponsor of the event handed
out their own awards. The top three winners of the “People’s Choice” awards were
Crowder College, the University of Puerto Rico, and the University of Virginia,
respectively. The University of Colorado won the Decathlon proper with their entry
powered by 63 Astropower AP-120 panels (7.68 kW total). The Colorado team built
their house out of mass-produced materials, yet went against many of the standard solar
house “requirements.” In particular, its roof was slanted almost 20 degrees flatter than
35

Nugent, T. The Chicago Tribune: Chicago, IL. Midwesterners plug into trend to solar power;
As many as 50,000 American homes are living `off the grid,' enabling users to snub utility bills.
03 Mar 2003.
36

Hoffman, W. PV Solar Electricity: One among the new millennium industries. Delivered at the
17th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference, Munich, Germany, 22-26 October 2001.
(http://www.nrel.gov/pv/thin_film/docs/pv_overview_21st_century_hoffmann_oca01720.pdf)
37

According to online currency calculators (http://xe.com/ucc/ and http://www.xrates.com/calculator.html), 100 billion euros is worth $143 billion in 2001 dollars. Converting to
2011 dollars, the figure becomes $180 billion.
(http://www.dollartimes.com/calculators/inflation.htm)
38

http://www.solardecathlon.gov

39

Forgey, B. The Los Angeles Times: Los Angeles, CA. Village sheds light on solar power. 06
Oct 2002.

8

Figure 2. The University of Colorado's 2002 Solar Decathlon entry.
what experts consider the optimum slope.40
In 2002, Greenpeace was still trying to promote PV, only now using it as a tool
to draw attention to the Kyoto Protocol. Greenpeace activists set up solar panels on the
home of then Premier of Alberta Ralph Klein to protest his stance against the 1997 Kyoto
climate change treaty. 41 A similar Greenpeace “solar install” was carried out in 2005 on
the home of John Prescott, then Deputy Prime Minister of Britain. 42 While it is unclear if
this led to more home solar PV installs among the general public, both high-profile men
complained that their wives were home at the time and got scared when the Greenpeace
activists started putting up the panels.
In 2005, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) began developing
the California Solar Initiative (CSI) program under Executive Order, and later in 2006
40

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, U.S. Department of Energy. Solar
Decathlon 2002: The Event in Review. (http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy04osti/33151.pdf)
41

Harrington, C. The Toronto Star: Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Alberta's Klein hits the roof over
Greenpeace solar panels ; Activists install 'gift' at premier's Calgary home. 12 Apr 2002.
42

Beattie, J. The Evening Standard: London, England. Greenpeace raiders try to put solar panels
in Prescott roof. 26 Apr 2005.

9

under State Law.43 The program was given a budget of just over two billion dollars, ten
percent of which was allocated for installing solar PV on affordable housing units (poor
peoples’ homes). In 2006, the California legislature passed Senate Bill 1, 44 establishing
official goals for the California Solar Initiative. The three main goals of the CSI are: 1) to
install 3,000 MW of solar by 2016, 2) to establish a self-sufficient solar industry within
10 years, and 3) to place solar energy systems on 50 percent of new homes, or buildingintegrated photovoltaics (BiPV), within 13 years. At the local level, Sonoma County and
the city of Sebastopol are also flirting with mandatory BiPV requirements on all new
construction.45;46
The city of Perris, California made some overtures in an attempt to curb their
CO2 emissions and produce green energy with PV. In April 2006, Perris contracted with
New Jersey-based Honeywell to upgrade building systems and facilities to cut their
energy use. Under the agreement, the company began retrofitting lights and installing
high-efficiency heating and cooling units with programmable thermostats. The energy
savings the upgrades produced, estimated at $1.8 million, will pay for the work over the
course of the 20-year agreement. In addition, the company led a solar panel installation
project to generate clean electricity for city facilities. Novato, California-based SPG
Solar47 designed and installed solar installations on carport roofs at the Perris library,
firehouse, senior center and city hall, among others. The installations were completed in
January 2008 and, in addition to the benefits provided by shaded parking spaces in sunny
California, they can produce 370 kilowatts of electricity annually, or enough energy to
power about 100 homes per year.48
43

California Public Utilities Commission. About the California Solar Initiative.
(http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/PUC/energy/Solar/aboutsolar.htm)
44

http://www.leginfo.ca.gov/pub/05-06/bill/sen/sb_00010050/sb_1_bill_20041206_introduced.pdf
45

Feinstein, M. Green Pages: Washington, DC. Major California election successes in 2006. 01
Jan 2007.
46

Solar Sonoma County. Sonoma County Solar Implementation Plan: Solar Sonoma County.
March 2010. (http://www.solarsonomacounty.org) (http://www.sonomacity.org/uploads/Reports
%20&%20Other%20Docs/Solar%20Implementation%20Plan_FINAL.pdf)
47

SPG Solar website. (http://www.spgsolar.com/index.php/markets-served/government-andeducation/government/city-of-perris/)
48

Anonymous. Putting sunlight to work. The American City & County: Nov. 2008.
(http://americancityandcounty.com/pubwks/facilities/harnessing_solar_energy_1108/index.html)

10

The private sector makes a few tentative steps towards meeting California’s new
BiPV-related goals. On March 15th, 2008, two LEED-Certified49 neighborhoods in San
Jose, Orchard Heights and Falcon Place, were open to the public. The home
manufacturing firm Pinn Bros. partnered with OCR Solar & Roofing for the project,
using BP Solar’s roof-integrated EnergyTile solar modules. 50 The homes will produce a
total of 231,000 kWh per year and reduce greenhouse gases by 6.6 million pounds.
Using other energy-saving features in the homes’ construction, the homes are up to 35
percent above California’s strong Title 24 Energy Efficiency Standards. 51 The CSI
program has a two-tier system, requiring a 15% reduction (minimum) or a 30% reduction
(recommended) in a building’s heating and energy footprint. 52
Even utilities, once long opposed to PV, are starting to get on board. Renewable
energy sources have "a place going forward," said Jeff Brining, a Norwich Public
Utilities engineer and energy efficiency program director. "We recognize that the
problem is the economics aren't there yet, but we want the community to be ready to go
when there is a breakthrough in technology. There really is no better way to learn than by
doing."53 The number of utility-scale PV arrays was certainly on the rise. A list of arrays
of 100 kW and greater was compiled by Sandia National Laboratories in 2004. The list
adds up to just over 492 MW installed around the world, 428 MW of which is in the
United States, and 409 MW of which is in California alone. 54
Students
During the 2006-2007 academic year, a group of Stanford graduate students
49

Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design. See the U.S. Green Building Council website
at http://www.usgbc.org/.
50

Anonymous. U.S. Newswire: Washington, DC. Pinn Bros. Fine Homes build’s San Jose’s first
solar & LEED Certified neighborhoods. 11 Mar 2008.
51

For more on Title 24 standards, go to http://www.energy.ca.gov/title24/.

52

For information on Title 24 standards in relation to the California Solar Initiative, go to
http://www.gosolarcalifornia.org/documents/CSI_HANDBOOK.PDF.
53

Daddona, P. McClatchy - Tribune Business News: Washington, DC. Alternative energy
products find a foothold at regional utilities. 13 July 2009.
54

Sandia National Laboratories. Solar Power Plants, Worldwide: 100kW+ (as of 3/15/2004). 15
Mar 2004. (http://photovoltaics.sandia.gov/docs/PDF/Solar%20Power%20Plants
%20Worldwide.pdf)

11

started the Stanford Solar & Wind Energy Project (SWEP). 55 The branch dedicated to
solar photovoltaics is called the Stanford University Solar Initiative (SUSI). 56 They are
still in the process of determining Stanford’s solar potential, taking such factors into
account as the visual impact that a PV installation would have on each campus building. 57
Located in the sunlight-rich Southwest, they have so far determined that Stanford has a
great solar resource, with about a 10 MW potential for the whole campus.
Abbotsford Middle School in Canada now utilizes wind, solar and a bicyclepowered generator to power their computer lab.58 When government funding for the
project was abruptly canceled, the school used their savings to pay for it.
In the 2009 Solar Decathlon, the trend was towards solar PV systems that
produce more power than the homes needed. As a motivating incentive, teams get bonus
points for excess power they feed back into the grid. Among the entries were homes built
by the University of Illinois (9 kW), the University of Louisiana at Lafayette (7.8 kW),
Cornell (8 kW), and the winners of the 2007 Solar Decathlon, the Technical University of
Darmstadt in Germany (11.1 kW), whose two-story entry features solar panels on the
roof and on all four sides of the house. 59
2010s
There are two signs that solar PV has surely come of age in American capitalism.
One is that solar panel theft is on the rise.60 The other is that it is now a product worthy
of the attention of aggressive salesmen, and a few California solar installers have
received complaints for their aggressive sales tactics and shoddy installation work.
55

http://inversion.stanford.edu/swep/drupal

56

http://inversion.stanford.edu/swep/drupal/?q=node/17

57

SUSI’s Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/swep-pvproject.

58

Ryan, D. The Vancouver Sun: Vancouver, B.C. Abbotsford Middle School runs computer lab
on green energy; Project uses wind turbine, solar panels and bike-powered generator. 20 Oct
2009.
59

Razzi, E. The Washington Post: Washington, DC. All's Possible Under the Sun; Twenty
student teams take over the Mall to show that solar-powered living is more than just a bright
idea. 10 Oct 2009.
60

Simon, S. The Wall Street Journal: New York, NY. Consumers --- Stop That (Solar) Thief! As
more solar panels are stolen, companies find new ways to protect them. 19 Oct 2009.

12

(Specifically, Pacific Home Remodeling and Sungate Energy Solutions, formerly known
as American Home Craft) The companies send salesmen who are instructed not to leave
the customers’ home until a deal gets signed. Afterwards, the installers are slow in
getting the job done, if at all, and the customer ends up with a smaller-than-average solar
PV system (< 2kW). "Customers will hardly notice the difference on their electric bill,"
said Ben Airth, residential program manager for the San Diego-based nonprofit
California Center for Sustainable Energy. 61 After months of waiting, one customer ended
up complaining to the Better Business Bureau and the California Contractors State
Licensing Board. In an effort to control prices, the CSI created a rule in 2010 that
companies looking to offer customers state rebates couldn’t charge more than two
standard deviations above the mean price per watt. ($14.34 per watt in January 2011) 62
In the wake of the 2008 housing bubble, not all solar ventures were smoothly
going forward. One such victim was Oshara Village, 63 a planned eco-friendly housing
development in Santa Fe, New Mexico. Only 128 of its 735 lots have been sold, and
only 55 homes have been built. Century Bank filed for foreclosure against Oshara. The
“village” was to feature PV for electricity, solar-oriented buildings for heat, and a water
recycling program.64
Google currently leads the corporate world in investing in green energy
technology, and is trying to get others to follow. They have invested in Nanosolar, 65 a
solar PV manufacturer that promises to dominate the market with CIGS-based technology
that boasts an impressive energy pay-back period of weeks instead of years. 66 They have
also invested in several wind farms, and have provided $168 million to support
construction of BrightSource Energy’s 392 MW Ivanpah project in California’s Mojave
Desert, one of the first utility-scale solar thermal plants to enter construction in the U.S.
61

Wolff, E. McClatchy - Tribune Business News: Washington, DC. Some solar prices sky high.
06 Feb 2011.
62

Ibid.

63

http://osharavillage.com

64

Sharpe, T. McClatchy - Tribune Business News: Washington, DC. Bank moves to foreclose on
Oshara Village development. 04 May 2011.
65

http://www.nanosolar.com

66

LaPedus, M. Electronic Engineering Times. Thin-film cells fatten solar market. 19 Feb 2007.

13

in three decades. But even Google isn’t above relying on help from the government. In
June 2011, Google created a $280 million tax-equity fund to help SolarCity Corp. pay for
rooftop solar systems. SolarCity finances the installation of photovoltaic panels on
houses, and homeowners pay a monthly fee to lease the equipment. The investment was
the first time a major corporation, rather than a finance company or utility, provided this
type of financing for a solar installer. “It’s part of our culture to try and find ways that
we can make things better,” said Rick Needham, Google’s director of green business
operations. Each deal, he said, is an opportunity “to support something that we think is
important, which is deployment of more clean energy and doing it at a scale and in places
where it can eventually lead to a lower cost of clean energy.” 67
The concept of energy payback is now being applied to houses, and not just to
solar PV technology. In Århus, Denmark, the Simonsen family got to live in an “Active
House” for a year and two months. 68 Over a time frame of forty years, the house will
eventually produce more energy than was used to build it, and this takes into account the
carbon footprint of every type of building material used in the home’s construction. The
house is a project of VKR Holding,69 a group of companies dedicated to the craft of green
building.70 Another of their projects is already finished and impressing spectators: the
Green Lighthouse on the University of Copenhagen campus. 71
California continues to set the bar high on green building standards. On January
1st, 2011, CALGreen,72 the nation’s first mandatory Green Building Standards Code,
officially took effect. Said Governor Schwarzenegger, “The code will help us meet our
goals of curbing global warming and achieving 33 percent renewable energy by 2020 and
67

Herndon, A. Bloomberg News. Google Profits From Tax Credit to Boost Its $750 Million
Clean Energy Plan. 08 Jul 2011. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-08/google-profitsfrom-tax-credit-to-boost-750-million-energy-plan.html)
68

Strongman, C. The Guardian: London. Weekend: SPACE: A little power house: This hi-tech
home creates more energy than it uses. But what's it like to live in - and how does that
touchscreen work? 06 Mar 2010.
69

http://www.vkr-holding.com

70

Hansen, E.K. IEEE Spectrum. Denmark’s Net-Zero Energy Home: With Home for Life, VKR
Holding aims to bring carbon-neutral houses to the masses. August 2010.
(http://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/buildings/denmarks-netzeroenergy-home/0)
71

http://greenlighthouse.ku.dk/english

72

http://www.bsc.ca.gov/CALGreen/default.htm

14

promotes the development of more sustainable communities by reducing greenhouse gas
emissions and improving energy efficiency in every new home, office building or public
structure.”73
At the local level in California, cities and towns are clamoring to get “green”
bragging rights. Mayor R. Rex Parris of Lancaster, California has officially declared that
Lancaster will become the greenest city in the state. "The goal is to produce more energy
... than we consume," Parris said. "I want to be the first city that does that, for a lot of
reasons. One is bragging rights. But two, the cost of energy is going to be so astronomical
in the future that the cities that are able to do that will have a competitive advantage…” 74
At the federal level, there was a slight setback for PV-minded homeowners. The
federal Energy Star program, a joint effort between the Environmental Protection Agency
and the Department of Energy, no longer offers a 30 percent tax credit for solar panels
installed by 2016.75 The Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job
Creation Act of 2010, signed into law by President Obama on December 17, 2010, rolls
the tax credits back to 2006 and 2007 levels, which were either 10% of the cost of
improvement, or up to $500. This is now a lifetime limit, so if a homeowner has already
received $500 between 2006 and 2010, they won’t get any more. 76
Advances are slowly being made in the effort to replace the United States’ old
energy infrastructure with a new upgraded “smart grid.” Congress has directed $4.6
billion from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (“stimulus money”)
towards its development. Southern California Edison, which covers parts of Los Angeles
and the surrounding area, began distributing new electric meters to its customers in 2008.
The “smart meters” can give the homeowner an instant report on the cost of electricity at
any given moment, allowing them to adjust their power usage accordingly. For utilities,
73

Pruitt, A. Energy Boom. California adopts nation’s first mandatory green building standard.
01 Feb 2010. (http://www.energyboom.com/policy/california-adopts-nations-first-mandatorygreen-building-standard)
74

Modesti, K. Daily News: Los Angeles, CA. Lancaster pushes ahead with solar energy. 12 Jul
2010. (http://www.dailynews.com/news/ci_15500800)
75

Aubin, T. The Boston Globe: Boston, MA. Changes That Pay: Your Home / Green Real
Estate; Take advantage of rebates and free audits to make your home eco-friendly (and cut utility
bills). 06 Dec 2009.
76

http://energystar.supportportal.com/ics/support/kbAnswer.asp?deptID=23018&
task=knowledge&questionID=32129.

15

new tools will enable them to quickly divert electricity around highly congested power
lines, reducing the risk of power outages. 77
While the new smarter grid gets developed and deployed, California’s capital,
Sacramento, continues its energy groundbreaking ways by looking into the similar yet
different “microgrid.” In energy engineering terms, the fundamental concept of a
microgrid is defined as an integrated energy system consisting of distributed energy
resources and multiple loads (i.e., buildings and appliances) operating as a single,
autonomous grid either in parallel with or "islanded" from the main utility power grid.
Utility engineers have historically opposed the concept of "islanding" on the basis of
safety and lack of control of their own grids. Today, however, a host of new power
conversion technologies has convinced the Institute of Electrical and Electronics
Engineers78 that islands of self-sufficient microgrids are no longer a threat to either
workers or to the utility grid in general.
In the case of Sacramento, the Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) is
planning a microgrid powered by solar photovoltaic panels, small combined heat and
power units which use natural gas to generate both heat and electricity, and zinc flow
batteries. Other utilities currently investigating microgrids include San Diego Gas &
Electric, American Electric Power and Canada's B.C. Hydro. 79 Microgrids are also ideal
for college campuses. The University of California San Diego already has a fully
functioning microgrid that uses a diverse set of power sources, including 1.2 MW of PV
panels.80
Students
Bill A1084 is currently working its way through the New Jersey State legislature.
The bill would require solar panels on all new public school facilities. 81 As of October 1,

77

Vock, D. McClatchy - Tribune Business News: Washington, D.C. Smart grid's growth now
depends on states. 18 Mar 2009
78
http://www.ieee.org
79
Asmus, P. Pike Research: Boulder, CO. Will Utilities Such as SMUD Develop Microgrid
Models for the Developing World? 6 June 2011. (http://www.pikeresearch.com/blog/articles/willutilities-such-as-smud-develop-microgrid-models-for-the-developing-world)
80
Reitenbach, G. Sustainability Solutions Institute: UC San Diego. Smart Power Generation at
UCSD - November 1, 2010. (http://ssi.ucsd.edu/index.php?
option=com_content&view=article&id=416:smart-power-generation-at-ucsd-november-12010&catid=8:newsflash&Itemid=20)
81
http://solar.calfinder.com/blog/news/mandatory-solar-jersey-schools

16

2010, New Jersey had over 200 MW of PV installed statewide, 82 but New Jersey’s largest
utility company, Public Service Electric & Gas Company (PSE&G), has plans to
significantly increase that number. Through their “Solar 4 All” program approved by the
New Jersey Board of Public Utilities, 83 PSE&G plans on installing 40 MW of panels on
utility poles throughout its service district, which includes over 300 towns and cities.
This has raised concerns among some New Jersey residents over cost and aesthetics,
while others see the long-term benefits and even like how the panels look. 84
Since piloting the Solar Affordable Housing Program in 2004, the Oakland,
California-based non-profit GRID Alternatives 85 has solarized more than 1,300 homes of
low-income families throughout Northern and Southern California, translating to more
than $21 million in energy generated over the projected life spans of the systems. GRID
is also mentoring local students and showing them the career possibilities of solar PV.
Recently, the group worked with students and staff from the Alternative Energy
Resources Occupations (AERO) Pathway program at Porterville Unified School District 86
to install two PV systems on local affordable-housing projects. One of the homeowners
receiving the panels said, "I'm very happy and grateful for the work that they have been
doing. I'm not sure how much this will save us. They said it saves quite a bit." 87
Beverly High School in Beverly, Massachusetts, recently got a “green”
makeover. The whole school was redesigned from a one-story building stretched out
over the campus grounds to a more space-efficient four-story building. Their green
energy output was nearly doubled from the original 100 kW Carter-era solar field, with a
new 83 kW rooftop PV installation and a 10 kW wind turbine. 88 They are now tied with
82

http://solarpanelspower.net/solar-power/solar-power-mandatory-in-all-future-new-jerseyschools
83
84

http://www.pseg.com/family/pseandg/solar4all/attachments/July2909Solar4allrelease.pdf
Various. The Record: Bergen County, New Jersey. Your views. 2 Apr 2011.

85

http://www.gridalternatives.org

86

http://phs-aero.portervilleschools.org

87

Avila, E. McClatchy - Tribune Business News: Washington, DC. PHS students help install
solar panels. 05 May 2011.
88

Lillelund, L. Wicked Local Beverly with news from the Beverly Citizen: Beverly, Mass.
Beverly High ranks high among green buildings. 2 Jun 2011.
(http://www.wickedlocal.com/beverly/news/education/x724668053/Beverly-High-ranks-highamong-green-buildings#axzz1TT6DZnbn)

17

local green energy challenger Hopkinton High School which also boasts 193 kW of green
energy. 89
2011 and beyond
SEIA and GTM Research are predicting that the United States will become the
world’s leading PV market after 2010. Because of a slowdown in major European
markets, particularly Germany and Italy, most PV manufacturers and developers are
turning to the U.S. for the bulk of their sales. Cumulative grid-connected PV in the U.S.
has now reached over 2.3 GW. Another 9 GW of concentrating solar projects have been
approved and are waiting in the “pipeline” to be constructed. 90
With the various national “green” goals to be met, whether it’s 50% renewable
power by 2030, an 80% reduction of GHG emissions by 2050, or parity with fossil fuelbased electricity, each solar project brings us that much closer. Combined with savings
from energy efficiency, perhaps the goals will be met that much sooner.

89

Solar Power Engineering. Solar panels on a high school in Hopkinton. 29 Oct 2010.
(http://www.solarpowerengineering.com/2010/10/solar-panels-on-a-high-school-in-hopkinton/)
90

Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and GTM Research. U.S. Solar Market Insight™:
1st Quarter 2011 - Executive Summary. (http://www.seia.org/galleries/pdf/SMI-Q1-2011-ES.pdf)

18

CHAPTER TWO
A BRIEF PRIMER ON ECONOMICS

Figure 3. The effect of a subsidy on price and
quantity.
Elementary economic theory gives us the downward-sloping demand curve and
the upward-sloping supply curve that form a letter ‘X’. Where the two lines cross
represents the price at which supply and demand balance. Figure 3 illustrates the change
that takes place with the addition of a subsidy to the equation. In the graph, P stands for
the price of a given good or service, and Q represents the quantity of the good. The
demand curve is the negatively-sloped line labeled D. The positively-sloped line labeled
S1 represents our initial supply of the good we wish to buy. When the government
provides a subsidy for our good, it brings the price of the good down and shifts our
supply curve down to S2. The price drops from P1 to P2, thereby increasing the quantity
demanded of the good from Q1 to Q2. In the context of this study, as the price of solar PV
falls (either in real terms, or through tax incentives or breaks), demand for it will rise.
Recent technological advances and falling production costs have boosted the
power production of, and interest in, solar PV. The state of California remains in the
throes of an exponential growth in PV installations, with an expectation of growth from
around 500 per year in 2000 to 50,000 by the end of the decade. 91 This growth arguably
91

Roosevelt, Margot. CALIFORNIA; Rays of progress on Solar Power; Study finds sharp
increase in rooftop installations, with San Diego leading L.A. and San Francisco. Los Angeles
Times, 16 July 2009.

19

has led to continued PV cost reductions. A study done by the Lawrence Berkeley
National Laboratory found that the average installed cost of PV systems, before
incentives or tax credits, fell from $10.5/W in 1998 to $7.6/W in 2007. 92 These findings
are similar to those of Maycock, who found that prices globally declined from $11/W in
1995 to less than $7/W in 2001.93
However, Wiser et al.94 also have found that pre-rebate installed costs have
tracked the level of their respective rebates to some degree, and that system purchasers
have therefore not benefited from the full amount of the rebate, since system installers or
retailers have captured some of it through higher prices. Percentage “caps” on rebate
programs have also contributed to impeded cost reductions at best, and artificial cost
inflation at worst. The California Energy Commission (CEC) and the California Public
Utilities Commission (CPUC) originally had a 50% incentive cap on pre-rebate
installation costs, but have since abandoned it. Wiser et al. recommend regular,
structured reductions in rebate incentive levels as the best way of developing a
sustainable PV market. This is the course that the CSI is currently on, with rebates
automatically declining in “steps” based on the volume of solar megawatts within each
utility service territory. 95
Germany and Japan
The Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21 st Century (Ren21), in their
online publication “Renewables 2011: Global Status Report,” report that Germany is
currently first (44% of global PV capacity) and Japan third (9%) in terms of worldwide
solar PV capacity. 96 How this came to pass serves as a rich test case for others to follow
92

Wiser, R., Barbose, G., and Peterman, C. Tracking the Sun: The Installed Cost of Photovoltaics
in the U.S. from 1998-2007. Feb. 2009. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
(http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/lbnl-1516e.pdf)
93

Maycock, P. 2002. “The World PV Market: Production Increases 36%.” Renewable Energy

94

Wiser, R., Bolinger, M., Cappers, P., and Margolis, R. Analyzing historical cost trends in
California’s market for customer-sited photovoltaics. Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and
Applications. 2007. 15:69-85. (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/pip.726/pdf)
95

Go Solar California website. (http://www.gosolarcalifornia.ca.gov/csi/rebates.php)

96

Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21 st Century (Ren21). Renewables 2011: Global
Status Report. (http://www.ren21.net/Portals/97/documents/GSR/GSR2011_Master18.pdf, page
23)

20

Figure 4. PV installations in Japan 1994-2001. (Source: Bolinger and Wiser)
on the subject of growing sustainable PV markets.
Japan
Japan had over 300 MW of solar PV in place at the end of 2000, most of which
was installed through a residential capital cost buy-down program that began in 1994 and
ended in 2001. When the program started, the maximum subsidy per system was
900,000 yen per kilowatt (up to 50% of installed costs). Over time, it declined to
120,000 ¥/kW in 2001 (up to 33% of installed costs).97 As shown in Figure 4, despite the
decline in incentive levels, there was an increase in PV installations over time. By the
end of 2004, Japan became the first country in the world to have 1 GW of PV installed.
When PV in Japan became cost competitive with fossil fuel-based electricity by 2005,
then Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi ended the subsidy program following pressure
from the fossil fuel lobby and free-market advocates. Japan switched their funding focus
from rooftop systems to utility-scale systems instead. 98 Japan subsequently fell to third
place worldwide, behind Germany and Spain, in terms of total grid-connected solar PV
capacity. 99
After the economic meltdown of 2008, Japan’s Ministry of Economic Trade and
Industry announced the return of incentives for the residential PV market. 100 The
incentives included a Japanese version of a feed-in tariff launched in November 2009,
97

Bolinger, M., and Wiser, R. Case Studies of State support for renewable energy: Support for
PV in Japan and Germany. Berkeley Lab and the Clean Energy Group, September 2002.
(http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/emp/cases/PV_in_Japan_Germany.pdf)
98

Jenkins, J., The Breakthrough Institute. Soaking up the sun: Solar power in Germany and
Japan. 7 Apr 2009.
(http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/04/soaking_up_the_sun_solar_power.shtml)
99

Johnston, E. The Japan Times: Tokyo, Japan. POWERING THE FUTURE: Despite
headwinds, solar energy making progress, advocates say. 24 Sep 2011.
(http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20110924f1.html)
100

Burger, M. GLG Research. Japan PV market turnaround? 7 Jan 2009.
(http://www.glgroup.com/News/Japan-PV-Market-Turnaround--30939.html)

21

and regional governments offered various local residential PV support such as subsidies,
loans, and utility buy-back schemes and assistance through special utility funds
specifically for green power. Japan’s domestic market more than doubled in 2009 to 477
MW because of these incentives.101
Germany
Support for PV in Germany began in earnest in 1989, and went through three
major phases: 1) the 1,000 Solar Roofs Program (1990-1995), 2) the 100,000 Solar Roofs
Program (started in 1999) and 3) the Renewable Energy Sources Act (2000).
The 1,000 Solar Roofs Program provided rebates of up to 60% of installed costs
for PV systems. By the time the program ended in 1995, roughly 2,250 systems totaling
5.25 MW had been installed.102
The 100,000 Solar Roofs Program was started in January 1999, with an initial
goal of 300 MW to be installed by 2004. The program provided 10-year low interest
loans (1.91% in 2001) with no money down and no interest payments for 2 years,
working out to about a 20% subsidy. This, combined with an updated Renewable Energy
Sources Act, prompted the government to roll back the 300 MW target date from 2004 to
2003.
The Renewable Energy Sources Act of 2000 (RESA) was a new and improved
version of Germany’s original feed-in law which had been enacted in January 1991.
Under the old feed-in law, wind and solar shared the same tariff, around eight cents per
kWh. This was sufficient to stimulate massive wind development throughout Germany,
but left solar lagging far behind. To remedy this, the PV tariff was increased nearly 6fold to about 50 cents per kWh under RESA, with a 5% decline each year to encourage
cost reductions.103

101

Solarbuzz: San Francisco, CA. Major Asia Pacific Photovoltaic markets expected to Grow
85% in 2010. 7 Jul 2010. (http://www.solarbuzz.com/our-research/recent-findings/major-asiapacific-photovoltaic-markets-expected-grow-85-2010)
102

Bolinger, M., and Wiser, R. Case Studies of State support for renewable energy: Support for
PV in Japan and Germany. Berkeley Lab and the Clean Energy Group, September 2002.
(http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/emp/cases/PV_in_Japan_Germany.pdf)
103

Ibid.

22

--Even though Japan may, for some, epitomize the ideal solar industry free of
government subsidy, in terms of total PV capacity they now lag far behind Germany, a
market that is still heavily subsidized. Germany is the largest solar market in the world
with 44% of global PV capacity, compared to Japan’s 9%. Germany installed around 6
GW of solar in 2010, for a grand total of almost 16 GW for the whole country. 104 Japan
won the solar sprint in the 1990s, but Germany’s winning the solar marathon in the
2010s.
Perhaps because of this, some Conservative German lawmakers would like to
relax government incentives for PV, saying that solar threatens to overburden consumers
with high electricity bills. Reducing incentives for solar would favor wind, a more
natural fit for utilities, as the size and cost of a wind farm is too high for the average
individual homeowner.105 On the other hand, there are dangers involved if the solar
market grows too fast, and Germany has recently implemented new reductions of solar
feed-in tariff (FiT) rates. 106 German FiT rates are now to be changed based on cumulative
PV installed between March and May 2011. If the total is greater than 6.5 GWp, the FiT
will be cut by 12%. If the total is less than 2.5 GWp, the FiT will be increased by 2.5%.
These represent the maximum reduction and maximum increase (or minimum reduction),
respectively, with other steps in between. 107
California - The Berkeley FIRST program
In 2008, the city of Berkeley launched a pilot program called the Berkeley
Financing Initiative for Renewable and Solar Technology (FIRST) to install solar PV
104

Green World Investor. Germany solar energy market world’s biggest - Green subsidies fuel
growth German Photovoltaic Panel, Cell, Inverter Manufacturers. 19 Mar 2011.
(http://www.greenworldinvestor.com/2011/03/19/germany-solar-energy-market-worlds-biggestgreen-subsidies-fuel-growth-german-photovoltaic-panelcellinverter-manufacturers/)
105

Landler, M. The New York Times: New York, NY. Germany debates subsidies for Solar
industry. 16 May 2008.
(http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/16/business/worldbusiness/16solar.html?
_r=2&scp=1&sq=Solar+Valley+Overcast)
106

Renewable Energy World.com. German FIT Reduction Deal Reached. 07 July 2010.
(http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2010/07/german-fit-reductions-set)
107

Osborne, M. PV Tech. Agreement reached on new German feed-in tariff, maximum 12%
regression. 14 Jan 2011. (http://www.pvtech.org/news/agreement_reached_on_new_german_feed_in_tariff)

23

systems using a unique financing mechanism they developed. The high up-front cost of
these systems would be lumped in with the property tax payments, and paid off over a
period of twenty years. The program was a small one: the total budget was $1 million,
and a maximum of 40 projects were to be approved. By the end of the program,
however, only 13 projects were completed at a total cost of $336,550. Due to time
constraints, the pilot was unable to replace applicants who withdrew.
The authors of the Berkeley FIRST Final Evaluation108 observed that interest in
the program was high: the 40 reservation slots were filled within the first 15 minutes of
the opening of the online application. Furthermore, some of the applicants, who either
dropped out of the program or never made it into the program in the first place, still
wanted to invest in a solar PV project and sought out alternative funding sources to do so.
A home equity loan was a popular alternative, and was actually less costly than the
Berkeley FIRST program. The majority of people who withdrew from Berkeley FIRST
said that the program’s interest rate was too high. 109
The idea behind Berkeley FIRST has since evolved into a wider movement called
PACE, an acronym for “Property-Assessed Clean Energy.” Since the completion of the
Berkeley pilot, the Federal Housing Finance Authority, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae
have all issued strict rulings against any PACE programs that give a PACE loan either
equal status to, or precedence over, a mortgage in the event of foreclosure (AKA a
“superior lien”). These rulings have effectively halted PACE programs. The agencies
argue that PACE loans could increase foreclosures, increase debt loads and place
mortgage loans at risk. Proponents of PACE argue that the program can reduce the cost
of home ownership, providing stability in the housing market. 110 The group PaceNOW111
is lobbying Congress to approve H.R. 2599, the PACE Assessment and Protection Act of
2011. The bill currently has bipartisan support in the House of Representatives. 112 H.R.
108

Planning and Development Dept., Office of Energy and Sustainable Development, City of
Berkeley, California. Berkeley FIRST Final Evaluation. November 2010.
(http://www.ci.berkeley.ca.us/uploadedFiles/Planning_and_Development/Level_3__Energy_and_Sustainable_Development/Berkeley%20FIRST%20Final%20Evaluation
%20current.pdf)
109

Ibid.

110

Ibid.

111

http://pacenow.org/blog

112

http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h112-2599. The full text of the bill is available

24

2599, sponsored by Reps. Nan Hayworth (R-N.Y.), Dan Lungren (R-Calif.) and Mike
Thompson (D-Calif.), will prevent federal housing regulators from adopting policies that
contravene established state and local property assessed clean energy laws. 113
MASH & SASH
Ten percent of CSI funds, or just over $200 million, have been legislated to
provide solar PV for affordable housing units. These have been split into two programs:
MASH (Multifamily Affordable Solar Housing) 114 and SASH (Single-family Affordable
Solar Housing).115 The overall goals of the MASH program are to: 1) stimulate adoption
of solar power in the affordable housing sector, 2) improve energy utilization and overall
quality of affordable housing through the application of energy efficiency and solar
technologies, 3) decrease electricity cost and usage without increasing monthly
household expenses for affordable housing occupants, and 4) increase awareness and
appreciation of the benefits of solar among affordable housing occupants and developers.
The MASH program is designed so that the benefits of the installed solar systems
would go to both landlords and tenants. To do so, it uses a Virtual Net Metering (VNM)
tariff program, a tariff that allows MASH participants to install a single solar PV system
per service delivery point that covers the electricity load of a multi-unit building’s
common areas (laundry room, parking lot lighting) and the tenants’ individual meters in a
building.116 In addition, the MASH program is divided into two “tracks.” Track 1
incentives provide fixed, upfront capacity-based incentives for solar PV systems that
offset common area and tenant loads. Track 2 offers higher incentives to applicants who
provide quantifiable “direct tenant benefits” (i.e. any operating cost savings from solar
that are shared with their tenants). 117
at http://pacenow.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/HR-2599-PACE-Protection-Act-of-2011.pdf.
113

New Jersey State League of Municipalities website. (http://www.njslom.org/letters/2011-0726PACE.html)
114

http://www.gosolarcalifornia.org/affordable/mash.php

115

http://www.gosolarcalifornia.org/affordable/sash.php

116

Multifamily Affordable Solar Housing Semi-Annual Progress Report: July 26, 2010.
(http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/NR/rdonlyres/C0EEF9DF-1EF4-4C9A-965D683205D59293/0/MASHSemiAnnualProgressReport_July2010.pdf)
117

http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/PUC/energy/Solar/mash.htm

25

The SASH program only offers the Expected Performance-Based Buydown
(EPBB) incentive, an upfront lump sum payment based on how much power the PV
system is expected to produce, and restricts this to customers serviced by one of the three
main investor-owned utilities: Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E), Southern California
Edison (SCE), or San Diego Gas & Electric Company (SDG&E). 118
Since both MASH and SASH are new programs, they have provided learning
opportunities for their administrators. The CPUC noted that “[s]ince its creation in
October 2008, the Multi-family Affordable Solar Housing program has been such a hit
with contractors and low-income housing agencies that many of the incentives have been
fully allocated, and there is a waiting list to participate in the program.” 119 The CPUC
found it unnecessary to spend their entire marketing budget, since MASH Track 1 was
oversubscribed early. However, they did have to do extra marketing to remind people
about the Track 2 program, and ultimately requested that excess Track 2 funds be
reallocated to Track 1. The authors of the MASH Semi-Annual Progress Report, the
California Center for Sustainable Energy120 (on behalf of the CSI program
administrators), also recommended reducing the Track 1 incentive rates in order to fund
more PV projects, a strategy also recommended by Navigant Consulting. 121
Regarding SASH, Navigant observed: “The original SASH design envisioned the
use of community financing to cover the gap between the full solar system cost and the
SASH incentive, this model did not prove feasible. Given the recession and the tight
credit market, loans were less readily available than they were at the time the program
was designed. Clients may have also been less willing to take on debt to participate in
SASH given the downturn in the housing market.” 122
118

Single-family Affordable Solar Homes (SASH) Program, Q1 2011 Program Status Report.
April 2011. GRID Alternatives, California Public Utilities Commission, and Go Solar California.
(http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/NR/rdonlyres/BE2A2B11-A16A-4687-A55639E337E9F1E4/0/2011Q1SASHREPORT.pdf)
119

California Public Utilities Commission. California Solar Initiative 2011 Annual Program
Assessment (Legislative Report). (http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/PUC/energy/Solar/apa2011.htm)
120

http://www.energycenter.org

121

Navigant Consulting. California Solar Initiative SASH and MASH Program Administrator
Performance Assessment Report. Presented to: The California Public Utilities Commission. April
5, 2011. (http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/NR/rdonlyres/3A60572D-725B-434E-A525077428DE4E5D/0/CSIMASHandSASHPAAssessmentReport_2011.pdf)
122

Ibid.

26

Power Purchase Agreements
A power purchase agreement (PPA) allows the customer to avoid the high upfront cost of solar equipment by leasing it from a third party. The host customer agrees
to have solar panels installed on the property, typically on the roof, and signs a long-term
contract with the solar services provider to pay them for the power generated by the PV
system. The PPA purchase price of the generated electricity is typically at or slightly
below the rate the customer would normally pay, and the PPA rates are typically flexible
to account for decreases in system efficiency as the system ages. The duration of most
solar PPAs can range from six to 25 years. 123 Host customers can either be individual
homeowners or corporate clients. SolarCity124 of Foster City, California caters to both
residential and corporate clients, while SunEdison 125 of Beltsville, Maryland and MMA
Renewable Ventures (MMA)126 of San Jose, California handle mostly large corporate
PPAs for companies like Wal-Mart and Whole Foods. 127 MMA also handled the
financing of the 15 MW PV plant at Nellis Air Force Base in 2007. 128
Interest in solar PPAs is starting to accelerate in the 2010s. The Arizona Public
Service Company has signed a PPA with Starwood Solar for a 290 MW concentrating
solar trough plant to be built by Lockheed Martin. It will be completed in 2013, and will
provide power to 73,000 APS electricity customers.129 Abengoa Solar also signed a PPA
with APS to purchase power from Solana, the name for what will be the world’s largest
parabolic trough concentrating solar power (CSP) plant. 130 Located southwest of
Phoenix, it will produce enough electricity to serve 70,000 customers, and will include

123

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: Green Power Partnership. Solar Power Purchase
Agreements. (http://www.epa.gov/greenpower/buygp/solarpower.htm)
124

http://solarcity.com

125

http://www.sunedison.com

126

http://www.mmarenewableventures.com
Peters, L. Semiconductor International. Solar rebates target corporations. Jul 2008.
128
FinancialWire: Forest Hills, NY. Nellis Air Force Base, MMA Renewable Ventures Close
Financing. 10 Oct 2007.
127

129

Anonymous. Starwood Energy Group Global, Llc; Starwood Energy Signs Power Purchase
Agreement with Arizona Public Service Co.; To Build the World's Largest Dispatchable Solar
Plant with Lockheed Martin. Biotech Business Week: 08 Jun 2009.
130
http://www.solanasolar.com; http://www.aps.com/main/green/Solana/default.html

27

six hours of molten salt thermal energy storage capacity. 131 It is expected to be
operational by 2013.
Staples, the business supply company, with 95% of its buildings leased, has seen
great success with PPAs. As of 2009, they have over 25 active solar rooftops, each one
producing 5-30% of the facility's annual energy needs. "The long-term price certainty is
important," says Jake Swenson, sustainability manager for Staples. "We're seeing
savings increase over time as the utility rates increase more than our escalation rates in
the PPA."132
PPAs also work for slightly smaller installations. Constellation Energy Group of
Baltimore built a 525 kW PV system to generate power for Patriot Place, the 1.3-millionsquare-foot entertainment, retail and dining complex next to the New England Patriots’
Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. Under a 20-year PPA, Constellation will own the
PV equipment and sell power to Patriot Place.133 Real Goods Solar installed 790 kW of
solar on four affordable housing communities in California: three in San Francisco and
one in Richmond. The upfront costs have been significantly reduced by the MASH
program and by San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom’s GoSolarSF program. 134 Siemens
Industry has recently announced its own PPA program. “…[b]oth the financial and
technical barriers associated with implementing solar energy are mitigated-we take on the
risk-while our customers reap the rewards of clean energy and lower utility bills," said
Andreas Schierenbeck, president of the Building Technologies division of Siemens. 135
--Of all the programs mentioned above, the Go Solar California program provides
the most comprehensive data available to the public about the PV installations in their
program. It therefore represents the basis for the data analysis of this thesis, and the next
chapter will provide the details on how it was used in conjunction with Census data.

131

Anonymous. “Abengoa Solar Closes Financing for the World's Largest Solar Generation
Plant.” Transmission & Distribution World: Jan. 2011.
132
Morton, J. “Maximize your Power Purchase Agreement.” Buildings: September 2010.
133
Anonymous. The Washington Post: Washington, DC. Local business. 08 Oct 2009.
134
Anonymous. Economics Week. Real Goods Solar; Real Goods Solar to Install Low Cost
Solar Energy at Bay Area Affordable Housing Communities. 18 Dec 2009.
135
The Pak Banker: Lahore, Pakistan. Siemens Introduces Solar Power Purchase Program. 27
Mar 2011.

28

CHAPTER THREE
METHODOLOGY

The California Energy Commission (CEC) and the California Public Utilities
Commission (CPUC) provide data on California solar photovoltaic (PV) installations to
the general public through the California Solar Statistics web site. 136 For this thesis, the
Working Data Set for February 2nd, 2011 is used as the reference data set. Raw Data Sets
are archived on a weekly basis online137, but not the Working Data Sets. According to
their FAQ page,138 a Raw Data Set becomes a Working Data Set once the program
administrators check it for errors. For this reason, a Working Data Set was chosen.
After sorting the Working Data Set, the number of PV installations were counted
by county, then by city. Cities were cross-checked against the 2000 Profiles of General
Demographics Characteristics (for California), 139 and those not appearing in the census
data were eliminated from the list. PV installations were also counted separately in
residential and non-profit categories. Four different regressions were performed with
Census 2000 data: County/Residential, City/Residential, County/Non-Profit and
City/Non-Profit. These same four were done later with ACS 2005-2009 data.
Data Set 1: California Census Data, Year 2000 – Summary File 3 Files
Rather than extracting and rearranging census data from the 2000 Profiles of
General Demographics Characteristics PDF file, the California Summary File 3 (SF3)
files were utilized for the statistical tests. 140 There are four types of Summary Files.141
136

http://www.californiasolarstatistics.ca.gov/current_data_files/
http://www.californiasolarstatistics.ca.gov/archived_data_files/
138
http://www.californiasolarstatistics.ca.gov/faq/
139
http://www2.census.gov/census_2000/datasets/demographic_profile/California/2kh06.pdf
140
http://www2.census.gov/census_2000/datasets/Summary_File_3/California/
141
For Census 2000: Summary File 1 presents counts and information (age, sex, race,
Hispanic/Latino origin, household relationship, whether residence is owned or rented) collected
from all people and housing units. Summary File 2 contains population and housing
characteristics iterated for many detailed race and Hispanic or Latino categories, and American
Indian and Alaska Native tribes. Summary File 3 presents detailed population and housing data
(such as place of birth, education, employment status, income, value of housing unit, year
structure built) collected from a 1-in-6 sample and weighted to represent the total population.
Summary File 4 contains tabulations of population and housing data collected from a sample of
the population. The data are shown down to the census tract level for 336 race, Hispanic or
Latino, American Indian and Alaska Native, and ancestry categories.
(http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DatasetMainPageServlet)
137

29

Figure 5. Map of PV installations in California.
The SF3 files contain detailed population and housing data, and generally seemed to be
the best fit of the four Summary File types for purposes of this study. There are 76 SF3
files of California Census data, and there are 16,520 columns of numbers distributed
unevenly among the 76 files. (For use in statistical programs, there are less than 256
columns per file.) Each column of data represents a specific variable. Variables are
further organized into subgroups based on the Census subject matter they represent
(people or housing, different ethnic groups, etc.). The preparers of the SF3 files went to
great pains to make sure that subgroups of variables aren’t split between two files. For
the column headers (the variable names), the Microsoft Access Summary File 3 template
file was used.142 See Appendix A for more detailed information about how this was done.
The 2000 Profiles of General Demographics Characteristics PDF file was used to
match city and county population data in the first SF3 file to make sure the correct rows
for cities and counties in the SF3 files were being used. (For example, data for the town
of Garberville is in row number 102812, and data for Yuba County is in row number

142

http://www.census.gov/support/2000/SF3/Acc2000.zip

30

87537 in the SF3 files) The next step was to convert the SF3 files into files that could be
used in the statistical program R.143
Java to the Rescue
Java™ is a computer language available for free on the web at
http://www.java.com and at the Oracle Corporation’s website. (http://www.oracle.com)
Java programs were written and used to perform data-handling tasks which, if done
manually, would simply have taken too long. The SF3 files aren’t encrypted, and are set
up in a Comma-Separated Values (.csv) format. The SF3 files as they are, however,
easily exceed the row limits of the statistical tool, R. Using lists of row numbers for 58
counties and 1,040 cities, Java programs were then used to make shortened versions of
the SF3 files containing only the necessary rows. Other Java programs were used to
automatically add PV installation data and column headers to the new files, and to
automatically calculate r2 values for all variables, among other tasks. The r 2 values were
double-checked in R to make sure the Java programs worked correctly.
Census Variables
Each of the 16,520 columns of Census data has a unique alphanumeric code
which will be referred to in this thesis as a “variable.” Each variable begins with one of
four prefixes: P, PCT, H or HCT. (P for people, H for housing) This prefix is followed
by three numeric digits. Next, some variables involve data for specific ethnicities. The
Census data uses nine different categories for race, and these are labeled with one letter
from A to I.144 Finally, the variable name is ended with its own unique, identifying suffix
of three numeric digits.
Consider, for example, the variable PCT066A009. The PCT066 group stands for
“Sex by Age by Armed Forces Status by Veteran Status for the Population 18 years and
over.” The A is for the “White alone” ethnic group, and the “009” describes men over 65
years old currently serving in the Armed Forces, of which there are none (Californians).
Similarly, the variable PCT066A020 describes white women over 65 years old currently
143

Available at http://www.r-project.org/.

144

The nine Census categories for race are: A) White alone, B) Black or African American alone,
C) American Indian and Alaska Native alone, D) Asian alone, E) Native Hawaiian and Other
Pacific Islander alone, F) Some other race alone, G) Two or more races, H) Hispanic or Latino,
and I) White alone, not Hispanic or Latino. For the ACS data, the categories are the same, but H
and I have traded places.

31

serving in the Armed Forces, of which there are none (Californians). This is the same for
the other eight Census ethnic groups. Another variable that is all zeroes is PCT064A014,
or “Residence in 1995 for the Population 5 years and Over—State and County Level
(White alone).” The “014” stands for “In Puerto Rico in 1995: Same municipio.”
Similarly, if it were “015” it would mean “In Puerto Rico in 1995: Different municipio.”
Municipio means municipality, or country subdivisions, of which Puerto Rico has 78.
Coincidentally, of the nine Census ethnic groups, none were in Puerto Rico in 1995
(Californians).
Columns of Census data will be referred to here as variables.
Data Set 2: The American Community Survey, 2005-2009: 5 Year Summary Files
For comparison to the results of the 2000 Census, a second data set was used: the
American Community Survey Estimate for 2005-2009. The files used are available
online.145 Compared to the Census 2000 SF3 files, the ACS files are much less orderly.
The .zip file contains 235 files: 117 estimate files, 117 margin of error files, and one
geography file explaining what each row in the data refers to. The files vary widely in
size, and 56 of them are completely empty! An Excel spreadsheet contains the variable
names and is available online.146 The ACS has a different but similar system as the
Census for naming variables, and has a total of 21,207 columns of data (referred to here
as “variables”).
The ACS files were processed in a similar manner using Java programs, with
variable names and PV installation data added to shortened custom spreadsheets. Again,
the same four categories were considered: County/Residential, City/Residential,
County/Non-Profit and City/Non-Profit. Regression values were computed with Java and
double-checked in R.

145

http://www2.census.gov/acs2009_5yr/summaryfile/2005-2009_ACSSF_By_State_All_Tables/
California_All_Geographies_Not_Tracts_Block_Groups.zip
146

http://www2.census.gov/acs2009_5yr/summaryfile/
Sequence_Number_and_Table_Number_Lookup.xls

32

CHAPTER FOUR
RESULTS OF STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Regression tests were performed with California solar PV data as the response
variable. Four categories of California Census 2000 data and four categories of
American Community Survey data for the period 2005-2009 were used separately as the
explanatory variable in eight separate tests. The eight categories used were Census
2000/County/Residential, Census 2000/City/Residential, Census 2000/County/NonProfit, Census 2000/City/Non-Profit, ACS/County/Residential, ACS/City/Residential,
ACS/County/Non-Profit and ACS/City/Non-Profit. The r2 values of the county
categories (~0.80) were higher than the city categories (~0.50), and this was consistent
between the 2000 Census and the ACS 2005-2009 data.
There are 16,520 different variables in the 2000 Census, and 21,207 in the ACS
2005-2009 data. For practical reasons, analysis was restricted to the top 20 “variables”
with the highest r2 values for each of the eight categories. In general, a portrait is painted
of a middle-class, mostly white California resident who has adapted his or her lifestyle to
avoid the harsh California metropolitan commutes.
Geographic Mobility
There are five variables within the top 10 of the Census 2000/County/Residential
category that deal with “Residency in 1995.” These five variables are all in the same
subgroup: PCT064I, or “Residency in 1995 for the Population 5 years and over - State
and County Level (White Alone, not Hispanic or Latino).” Taken together, given that
their r2 values are so close together, these five variables suggest that 1) the more recently
a white California resident has moved, the more likely they are to use solar PV, and 2) if
they’re coming from out of state, they’re slightly less likely to use PV than someone
who’s moving to a different California county. Of the PCT064I group, the three
variables with the smallest r2 values in this group are PCT064I016 (“Elsewhere in 1995”,
r2 = 0.59), PCT064I017 (“U.S. Island areas”, r2 = 0.60) and PCT064I018 (“Foreign
country or at sea”, r2 = 0.58).
In the ACS 2005-2009/County/Residential category, the variable with the highest
r2 value is for people who have moved from a different state, and who are married but

33

Table 1. Census 2000/County/Residential category - highest r2 values.

separated. (Variable #B07008.22.27, r2 = 0.80) Also in the same category are native
Californians who moved away but have now returned to the state (Variable
#B07007.22.27, r2 = 0.78). In the ACS 2005-2009/City/Residential category, there are
four mobility variables in the highest r2 values, all for people who have moved to
California from a different county. Compared to the Census 2000 variables, the influence
of solar on new residents coming from another state has decreased. Geographical
mobility is not strongly correlated in the ACS/Non-Profit categories.
In sum, it appears that people coming to California from outside its borders are
more likely to install solar PV than those who have resided in the state permanently.
Ethnicity categories
Although a number of ethnicity-related variables were among the top variables in
all eight categories in terms of r2 values, it should be noted that the findings of this study
have a certain shelf life. According to a report from the U.S. Department of Commerce,
34

Table 2. Census 2000/City/Residential category - highest r2 values.

America is becoming more diverse, and the racial profile of America will look
remarkably different in 2050 than it does now. Among its predictions, the report projects
that “[t]he faster growth of minority groups will lead to a substantial decrease of the
proportion of the non-Hispanic White (i.e., non-Minority) population, a 21-point drop
from 74 percent to 53 percent.”147 Therefore, the results of a study similar to this one
done ten or twenty years from now could look quite different compared to the present
study.
That being said, the ancestry category with the highest r 2 values and strongest
general presence among the top variables is Northern European. The Census Bureau
defines ‘Northern European’ as including the UK (England, Scotland, Wales, Northern
Ireland, Guernsey, Jersey and Isle of Man), Denmark, the Faroe Islands, Iceland, Ireland,
147

He, W. and Hobbs, F. Minority Population Growth: 1995 to 2050, The Emerging Minority
Marketplace. Washington: U.S. Department of Commerce, Minority Business Development
Agency, 1999. (http://faculty.washington.edu/mbarreto/courses/minoritypopulation2050.pdf)

35

Table 3. Census 2000/County/Non-Profit category - highest r2 values.

Norway (including Jan Meyen and Svalbard) and Sweden. 148 It is the second highest
variable in the Census 2000/City/Residential category (r 2 = 0.49) and the top four
variables of the ACS 2005-2009/City/Residential category (r 2 values: 0.52, 0.52, 0.51 and
0.51). “Place of birth for the foreign-born population: other Northern Europe” is the
seventh highest variable in the Census 2000/County/Non-Profit categories (r 2 = 0.71).
Finnish as First Reported Ancestry is the 14th highest variable in r2 value in the
Census 2000/County/Residential category (r2 = 0.77). Interestingly, people of Finnish
ancestry are more correlated with solar in the ACS 2005-2009 survey than in the Census
2000 data. In the ACS 2005-2009/County/Residential category alone, there are five
Finnish ancestry variables ranging from fifth to eleventh place (r 2 values: 0.78, 0.78,
0.78, 0.77 and 0.77). People who speak Scandinavian languages at home and English
“less than 'very well'”149 place 13th and 14th in the ACS 2005-2009/County/Non-Profit
148

http://www.census.gov/acs/www/Downloads/data_documentation/CodeLists/
Foreign_Country_Code_List_062310.pdf
149

ACS Category B16001: Language spoken at home by Ability to speak English for the
population 5 years and over. Ability to speak English is broken up into a binary classification:
those who 1) speak English “very well” and 2) less than “very well.”

36

Table 4. Census 2000/City/Non-Profit category - highest r2 values.

category. Danish (r2= 0.78), Norwegian (r2 = 0.77) and Welsh (r2 = 0.77) also show up in
the highest 20 r2 values of the ACS 2005-2009/County/Residential category.
There are other non-Northern European ancestry categories among the highest r 2
values. Acadian/Cajun shows up in both Census 2000 and the ACS. Appearing in the
Census 2000 categories are Celtic, Luxemburger, Slovene and Slovak. Appearing in the
ACS 2005-2009 categories are Swiss, Belgian and Cypriot. In the Census 2000 County
categories, “Other Eastern Africa” shows up thirteenth in the County/Residential
variables, and African languages spoken at home in the County/Residential and
County/Non-Profit categories.
Household Income
In the Census 2000/County/Residential category, a variable related to income,
PCT072I013, is in the highest r2 values. PCT072I refers to “Age of householder by
Household Income in 1999”, the I is for the “White alone (not Hispanic or Latino)”
ethnic group, and the “013” refers to a householder under 25 years old who made
37

Table 5. ACS 2005-2009/County/Residential category - highest r2 values.

$60,000 to $74,999 in income in 1999. The PCT072I group of variables consists of 120
variables: 17 income groups, 7 age groups, plus an extra variable for “total.” As
expected, the lowest income brackets have the lowest r 2 values. For example,
PCT072I020, or a householder 25 to 34 years old with an income in 1999 less than
$10,000, has an r2 value of 0.45. However, two high-income groups also have low r 2
values: householders under 25 with income between $125,000 and $149,999 have an r 2
value of 0.46, and householders 25 to 34 years old with income of $200,000 or more
have an r2 value of 0.48. The high-income age bracket with the highest r 2 value is for
householders 45 to 54 years old, with an r2 value of 0.60. Among the top 10 r2 values of
the entire PCT072I group in the Census 2000/County/Residential category, the lowest
income bracket is “$30,000 to $34,999” (age: under 25, r2 = 0.70) and the highest income
bracket is “$125,000 to $149,999” (age: 45 to 54, r2 = 0.70).
Among “Black or African American Householders” (the PCT072B variables
group), the high-income ($200,000 or more in 1999) age bracket with the highest r 2 value
is for homeowners 35 to 44 years old. (r2 = 0.37) Among “American Indians and Alaska
native Householders” (the PCT072C group), the high-income age bracket with the
highest r2 value is for homeowners 45 to 54 years old. (r2 = 0.64) Among “Asian
Householders” (the PCT072D group), the high-income age bracket with the highest r 2
38

Table 6. ACS 2005-2009/City/Residential category - highest r 2 values.

value is for homeowners 55 to 64 years old. (r 2 = 0.47) Among “Hispanic or Latino
Householders” (PCT072H), the high-income age bracket with the highest r 2 value is for
homeowners 35 to 44 years old. (r2 = 0.45) Among “Native Hawaiian and other Pacific
Islander alone Householders” (PCT072E), the high-income age bracket with the highest
r2 value is for homeowners 35 to 44 years old. (r2 = 0.66) This is the highest r2 value for
any group in the high-income bracket.
Looking at the nine ethnicity categories in the PCT072 variable group for the top
100 r2 values (out of 1080), the income group with the most high r 2 values is the $75,000
to $99,999 group. The age groups with the highest r2 values in the top 100 are the “75
and older” groups (20), “Under 25” (19), and “35 to 44 years old” (16).
In the Census 2000/City/Residential category, the “White” (A) and “White, not
Hispanic or Latino” (I) variables have high r2 values, and the most represented age groups
are “Under 25”, “25 to 34” and “35 to 44”. The highest r 2 value, however, was for
PCT072D014, or Asians under 25 who make $75,000 to $99,999 a year (r2 = 0.42).
In sum, it appears that those in the middle class are more likely to install solar PV

39

Table 7. ACS 2005-2009/County/Non-Profit category - highest r2 values.

than those in the upper and lower classes.
Modes of Transportation to Work
Variables representing modes of transportation dominate the highest r 2 values of
the ACS Non-Profit categories and, not surprisingly, none of them reflect people driving
to work alone. On the other hand, carpooling is also not among the highest r 2 values of
any category. Transportation variables within the highest r 2 values are generally more
numerous in the city categories than the county categories, and more numerous in the
ACS categories than the Census 2000 categories.
Transportation trends have shifted from more motorcycles in 2000 to less in
2005-2009. In 2005-2009, walking to work categories have high r2 values, especially
among workers leaving home between 6:30am and 6:59am. By comparison, in the
Census 2000/County/Non-Profit results, variable #P034007 (Time Leaving Home To Go
To Work For Workers 16 Years And Over: 6:30am to 6:59am) has an r2 value of 0.55,
ranking 2,654th out of 16,520.

40

Table 8. ACS 2005-2009/City/Non-Profit category - highest r 2 values.

Occupations
The group of occupations in the census data that is most closely related to solar
PV usage is “Life, physical, and social science occupations.” The Bureau of Labor
Statistics definition covers a large and diverse set of occupations from historians to
economists, physicists, astronomers, animal scientists, food scientists and technicians,
and forest and conservation technicians, to name just a few. The suggestion should be
obvious, but the more likely one is to work with solar PV in the workplace and have
knowledge of its associated benefits, the more likely one is to use solar PV to generate
power at home.
Among the highest r2 values in the eight categories, the variable is in Census
2000/City/Residential (male), Census 2000/County/Non-Profit (male and female),

41

ACS/County/Residential (male), ACS/City/Residential (male, male, unisex), and
ACS/County/Non-Profit (unisex).
However, for the ACS/City/Non-Profit category, “Management, professional,
and related occupations” have higher r2 values than the “Life, physical, and social science
occupations.” The top three highest contenders among variables in this category related
to “Life, physical, and social science occupations” are: #C24060.76.129 (“Occupation By
Class Of Worker For The Civilian Employed Population 16 Years And Over: Local,
state, and federal government workers: Life, physical, and social science occupations”, r 2
= 0.35), #C24020.73.10 (“Sex By Occupation For The Full-Time, Year-Round Civilian
Employed Population 16 Years And Over: Male: Life, physical, and social science
occupations”, r2 = 0.32) and #C24010.72.10 (“Sex By Occupation For The Civilian
Employed Population 16 Years And Over: Male: Life, physical, and social science
occupations”, r2 = 0.32).
To reiterate, among all occupations, the data suggest that people employed in the
“Life, physical, and social science occupations” seem most likely to install solar PV.
Year Structure Built
Census 2000
The data suggest that solar PV is associated with newer construction - dwellings
built within the last ten to thirty years. In the ACS/County/Residential category, the
variable for aggregate gross rent for structures built between 2000 and 2004 has an r 2
value of 0.77. In general, among the highest r2 values, the newer the structure is, the
higher the r2 value. For slightly older structures, in the Census 2000/City/Residential
category, HCT006029 (Tenure by Year Structure Built by Units In Structure: Owneroccupied: Built 1980 to 1989: 2 to 4 units) has a higher r2 value than HCT006037
(Tenure by Year Structure Built by Units In Structure: Owner-occupied: Built 1970 to
1979: 2 to 4 units), but both are in the highest r2 values.
Of variables dealing with tenure (owner-occupied vs. renter-occupied), there are
six owner-occupied variables and only three renter-occupied variables related to solar
usage. This supports the perception that renters are less likely to be in a position to
install PV than the owners of the buildings.

42

ACS 2005-2009
In the ACS, the variable group B25034 deals only with “Year Structure Built.” 150
In the ACS/County/Residential category, the three B25034 variables with the highest r 2
values are: structures built 1990-1999 (r2 = 0.68), structures built 1970-1979 (r2 = 0.68),
and structures built 1980-1989 (r2 = 0.64). The lowest r2 value is for structures built 1939
and earlier (r2 = 0.28). In the ACS/County/Non-Profit category, the three B25034
variables with the highest r2 values are: structures built 1939 and earlier (r2 = 0.53),
structures built 1970-1979 (r2 = 0.52), and structures built 1960-1969 (r2 = 0.49). The
lowest r2 value is for structures built 2005 and later (r2 = 0.25).
In the ACS/City/Residential category, the three B25034 variables with the
highest r2 values are: structures built 2000-2004 (r2 = 0.33), structures built 1990-1999 (r2
= 0.33), and structures built 2005 or later (r2 = 0.28). The lowest r2 value is for structures
built 1940 to 1949 (r2 = 0.06). In the ACS/City/Non-Profit category, the three B25034
variables with the highest r2 values are: structures built 1939 and earlier (r2 = 0.21),
structures built 2000-2004 (r2 = 0.14), and structures built 1990-1999 (r2 = 0.13). The
lowest r2 value is for structures built 1950-1959 (r2 = 0.06).
These r2 values suggest opposite agendas between the residential sector, where
the tendency is to upgrade newer buildings first, and the non-profit sector, where
businesses tend to upgrade older buildings first.
Units in Structure
For the Census 2000 categories, there are seven variables dealing with two to
four units in a structure. Four is the highest amount of units among the highest r 2 values,
which suggests that a major trend in solar PV at the time was installations for small
complexes of apartments or condos. In progressing to the ACS categories, units-instructure variables only appear twice. This suggests that, in moving from the Census
2000 data to the ACS 2005-2009 data, the number of units in a structure is becoming a
less significant factor, perhaps due to the sharp increase in residential PV installations.

150

Other variable groups in the ACS combine it with another factor, such as B25108, or
“Aggregate Value (Dollars) by Year Structure Built,” or B25107, or “Median Year by Year
Structure Built.”

43

Table 9. German- and Japanese-related r2 values.

German and Japanese
Since Germany and Japan represent significant PV markets in and of themselves,
it would probably be worth noting how their Census counterparts fared in the various
regression tests. The variable with the highest r 2 value is German as First Reported
Ancestry for the County/Residential category. The r 2 value for this variable in the
Census 2000/County/Residential category is 0.72, and it increases to 0.73 in the ACS
2005-2009/County/Residential category.
The second highest variable is for Pennsylvania German as First Reported
Ancestry. The r2 value for this variable in the Census 2000/County/Residential category
is 0.67, and it decreases to 0.65 in the ACS 2005-2009/County/Residential category.
According to 2000 Census data, there is a small Pennsylvania German population living
in Southern California in the following counties: San Bernardino, Orange, Riverside and
San Diego.151
Both sets of Census data only have one category for Japanese in common: Place
of Birth for the Foreign-Born Population. All r2 values decrease when moving from
Census 2000 to ACS 2005-2009, and the highest r2 pair is in the County/Non-Profit
151

Map of Pennsylvania Dutch in the United States, Census Bureau 2000. Valparaiso University
Online. (http://www.valpo.edu/geomet/pics/geo200/pct_pa_german.pdf)

44

categories. If nothing else, this seems to be consistent with the fact that the German PV
market has overtaken the Japanese PV market in terms of total installed capacity since the
1990s. The r2 values for the German foreign-born population also reflect this, showing
the biggest increases in r2 value from Census 2000 to ACS 2005-2009, and this is
consistent for all categories. Except for County/Non-Profit, all categories have an
increase of r2 greater than 0.01.
Summary
Given the wealth of information contained in the Census data, a detailed picture
of who is using solar PV is beginning to emerge. The highest r 2 values of the eight
categories have certain factors in common. People who have recently moved, people
who are mostly of Northern European descent, mostly middle income, mostly with
science-related jobs, and who live in relatively new buildings, are all factors with the
highest r2 values. In the next section, some of these factors will be examined more
closely to see how they’re related to PV in the current literature.

45

CHAPTER FIVE
A POST-RESULTS LITERATURE REVIEW

Given the high number of highly significant factors in this study, attention will
be paid to a small number of them. The analysis will focus on the roles that Australia,
Northern Ireland, Finland and motorcycles have played in this study, with additional
sections about Germany and Japan.
Australia
For the Census 2000/County/Residential category, respondents reporting
Australian as their second ancestry was the census variable most related to solar PV
usage. (r2 = 0.80) One major contributing factor to this could be the airline industry,
since Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) is a main hub of Australian airline
Qantas. According to LA Inc., the Los Angeles Convention and Visitors Bureau,
Australia emerged as the top “feeder market” for overseas tourists to Los Angeles in
2010.152 Australia and California also share the international presence of several solar PV
companies like Kyocera, 153 BP Solar,154 Solar Power Inc.,155 SunPower,156 SolFocus,157 and
partnerships between California-based companies like Solar EnerTech and Australiabased companies like Aussie Solar Installations. 158
152

Sewell, A. Los Angeles Times: Los Angeles, CA. TOURISM; G'day L.A.: Aussies top list of
city's overseas visitors in 2010. 05 Jan 2011.
153

Business Editors/Environment Writers. Business Wire: New York, NY. Kyocera names new
President for U.S.-based solar energy unit; company veteran Steven C. Hill to lead Kyocera’s
solar business in the Americas and Australia. 16 Jan 2004.
154

Anonymous. U.S. Newswire: Washington, DC. Pinn Bros. Fine Homes builds San Jose’s first
solar & LEED-Certified neighborhoods. 11 Mar 2008. BP Solar has solar cell plants in Sydney,
Australia; Frederick, MD; and many others.
155

Anonymous. Business Wire: New York, NY. Solar Power, Inc., announces Second Quarter
2009 financial results. 13 Aug 2009. Solar Power Inc. extended sales to Europe and Australia.
156

Anonymous. PR Newswire: New York, NY. SunPower and Southern California Edison sign
contracts for 711 megawatts of solar power. 10 Jan 2011.
157

Anonymous. Business Wire: New York, NY. SolFocus partners with Bechtel to deliver
renewable power for California agribusiness. 1 Apr 2011.
158

Anonymous. Business Wire: New York, NY. Solar EnerTech enters into sales contract with
Australian solar company. 03 Feb 2010. Solar EnerTech of Mountain View, CA, is partnering
with Aussie Solar Installations to distribute their solar panels in Australia.

46

Australia has jumped headlong into the solar race, finally using to their
advantage the fact that they have the highest average solar radiation per square meter of
any continent in the world.159 According to the Australian Clean Energy Council, there
was over 300 MW of solar PV capacity for all of Australia at the end of September
2010.160 However, they do plan on increasing that figure severalfold in the coming
decades. The Australian Government has set an official Renewable Energy Target (RET)
of 20% by the year 2020, which encompasses all forms of renewables. The goal will be
reached with the help of funds generated from a carbon tax. 161 While they set no specific
goals for PV, they do claim that the RET has already “encouraged significant deployment
of small systems, with around 300,000 solar panel systems supported under the RET
since 2001,” and that “around 600,000 domestic and commercial solar water heaters and
heat pumps have been supported under the RET.” 162 The Australian Government has also
allocated $5.1 billion to its Clean Energy Initiative. 163
Australia is partnering with the United States through the US-Australia Solar
Energy Collaboration (USASEC). Announced on November 7, 2010, the long-term goal
of USASEC is to develop technologies that will bring the cost of PV-generated electricity
down to “prices compatible with electricity from conventional sources,” and to generally
increase the speed of solar energy technology development. 164 The Australian
Government also committed funding of up to $50 million from the Renewable Energy
159

Australian Energy Resource Assessment. Chapter 10: Solar Energy.
(https://www.ga.gov.au/image_cache/GA16862.pdf)
160

Australian Clean Energy Council website. Technologies: Solar PV.
(http://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/cec/technologies/solarpv.html)
161

Australian Government: Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism. Energy: Enhancing
Australia's Economic Prosperity. (http://www.ret.gov.au/energy/clean/Pages/CleanEnergy.aspx);
Australian Government: Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency. Renewable
Energy Target. (http://www.climatechange.gov.au/en/government/initiatives/renewabletarget.aspx)
162

The Department of Climate Change and Energy Security: Government of Australia. Securing
a clean energy future: The Australian Government's Climate Change Plan. 2011. ISBN 978-0642-74723-5. (http://www.cleanenergyfuture.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/ConsolidatedFinal.pdf)
163

Media press release: Australian Government. US and Australia join forces on solar power. 7
Nov 2010. (http://www.pm.gov.au/press-office/us-and-australia-join-forces-solar-power.)
164

Australian Government, Dept. of Resources, Energy and Tourism.
(http://www.ret.gov.au/energy/clean/cei/asi/Pages/default.aspx)

47

Future Fund, which will be managed through the new Australian Solar Institute. 165 The
goal is to make Australia a key player in the development of solar energy technologies in
the Asia-Pacific region. One way this is being done is through the establishment of the
Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA), a new independent agency whose
mission is to fund development of a range of renewable energy sources, including solar,
geothermal and biofuels.166 The government has also committed $1.5 billion to the Solar
Flagships program to support the construction of four large solar PV power plants
totaling 760 MW, and three solar thermal plants totaling 555 MW. 167 Solar energy use in
Australia has been projected to increase 5.9 per cent per year to 24 petajoules by 2030. 168
Local governments have set their own targets as well. In particular, Sydney has
established an ambitious, holistic five-point plan called Sustainable Sydney 2030. The
plan involves: 1) making the city center friendly for people and global business, 2)
building an improved “sustainable” public transport system that reduces congestion, 3)
making the city friendlier for pedestrians and cyclists with a plan that includes planting
more trees, 4) community hubs where more businesses and government services are
within walking distance, and 5) initiatives to make the city more energy and water
efficient.169 For starters, the Sydney town hall has gone solar courtesy of Suntech Power,
a company that has installed 240 solar panels for a 48kW rooftop installation. 170 Sydney
plans on eventually installing PV on 24 city buildings.171
165

http://www.australiansolarinstitute.com.au/

166

Thompson, J. Australia: ABC News. Greens hail win on renewables agency. 8 Jul 2011.
(http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-08/greens-hail-win-on-renewables-agency/2787118)
167

Australian Government: Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism. Solar Flagships
Project Descriptions - Round 1.
(http://www.ret.gov.au/resources/Documents/solar_flagship/SF_Round_1_Project_Descriptions.p
df)
168

Australian Energy Resource Assessment. Chapter 10: Solar Energy.
(https://www.ga.gov.au/image_cache/GA16862.pdf)
169

http://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/2030/theplan/

170

Hughes, E. PV-Tech: Solar Media Limited. Project Focus: Suntech installs first Pluto cells in
Australia on Sydney Town Hall. 19 Apr 2010. (http://www.pvtech.org/news/project_focus_suntech_installs_first_pluto_cells_in_australia_on_sydney_tow)
171

City of Sydney. State of the City 2011: Sustainable Sydney 2030.
(https://s3.amazonaws.com/media.cityofsydney/2030/documents/State-of-the-City-report2011.pdf)

48

Individual homeowners also are taking solar matters into their own hands. In
Gold Coast in Southeast Queensland, for example, homeowners there are springing for
PV installations with over 100 panels. Siggi Schnitzler installed 138 panels on his house.
After doing the math, he calculated it would take five years to pay for the initial
investment of $100,000, after which he will make $22,000 a year in profit for extra
power sold back to the grid.172 The Gold Coast and Hinterland Environment Council
(Gecko) is encouraging residents to embrace solar for their homes. Gecko's Solar Savers
Challenge wanted to get 1000 Gold Coast and Tweed residents to install solar panels or
solar hot water by the end of 2010. 173 To publicize the contest, Gecko produced and aired
a number of TV advertisements, and created a “Guide to Going Solar” which is described
on their website as “a community service initiative designed to help you make an
informed and confident decision about going solar.” Their website does not say how the
Challenge ultimately turned out, but they still offer a lot of information about the benefits
of solar PV and solar hot water heating, and conclude by saying “Although the Solar
Savers program has ended, you can still join the Challenge…” 174
Ireland
The ancestry variable “Ireland as Place of Birth for the Foreign-Born Population”
had a high r2 value in the Census 2000/City/Non-Profit category, and those results merit
further attention. In 2006, the government of Northern Ireland mandated that, starting in
2008, all new homes were to have solar panels. This plan was announced by then
Secretary of State Peter Hain, who had cut his own energy bills in half with solar. 175
Northern Ireland Electricity (now Power NI) 176 offered to subsidize home PV installations
through a program called Plug in The Sun, which gave homeowners up to 65% funding
to install either 1.5 kW or 3 kW PV systems on their homes. The program was done in
172

Elder, J. The Gold Coast Bulletin: Southport, Queensland, Australia. How to have funds in the
sun: install 138 solar units. 24 Mar 2011.
173

Bedo, S. The Gold Coast Bulletin: Southport, Queensland, Australia. Sun is shining on our
solar savers. 11 Jun 2010.
174

Gecko - Gold Coast and Hinterland Environment Council.
(http://gecko.org.au/education/solar-information/)
175

Morton, R. Belfast Telegraph: Belfast. New homes must have solar panels. 24 Jul 2006.

176

Anonymous, Power NI. Plug in The Sun for an Eco New Year! 31 Dec 2007.
(http://www.powerni.co.uk/index.php/2007/12/31/plug-in-the-sun-for-an-eco-new-year/)

49

conjunction with Northern Ireland’s Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment
(DETI) Reconnect grant for solar PV.
To make Ireland a contender in the global green energy race, the Sustainable
Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI)177 has developed a 5 year strategic plan (2010-2015)
to make Ireland a “recognized global leader in sustainable energy.” 178 The plan is
mandated by Ireland’s “Sustainable Energy Act 2002,”179 and is broken down into three
Key Strategic Objectives. The first objective is “Energy efficiency first,” with plans to 1)
make all new construction energy positive, and 2) implement an aggressive retrofit
program for existing buildings.
The second Key Strategic Objective advocates the use of low-carbon energy
sources, recognizing and acknowledging the threat of climate change. Brendan Halligan,
Chairperson of SEAI, writes “The urgency and scientific certainty of the climate change
crisis is growing, and there is widespread consensus on the imperative to make deep cuts
in greenhouse gas emissions.”180 The development of solar in conjunction with
microgeneration is a part of their renewable energy portfolio.
The third Key Strategic Objective involves “innovation and integration,” and
“innovation in technology and behaviours [sic].” SEAI’s strategic plans for the
“greening” of Ireland extend past 2015. Within 15 years (by 2025), renewable energy
sources will represent over half of electricity supply, and renewable sources for heat will
be “the norm.” All new buildings will be energy self-sufficient, and most new car
purchases will be electric vehicles. Within 25 years (by 2035), the goals reach a little
further. Ireland will have an energy system rooted in local, green electricity. All
buildings will be at least energy self-sufficient, and Ireland will be an exporter of energy,
electricity, expertise, and sustainable technologies.
These are worthy plans for every country to establish, but Ireland has catching up
177

http://www.seai.ie

178

Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland. Strategic Plan 2010-2015.
(http://www.seai.ie/Publications/SEAI_Publications/SEAI_5yr_strategy.pdf)
179

The full text of the “Sustainable Energy Act, 2002” is available online at
http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/2002/en/act/pub/0002/index.html.
180

Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland. Strategic Plan 2010-2015.
(http://www.seai.ie/Publications/SEAI_Publications/SEAI_5yr_strategy.pdf)

50

to do to become as great an exporter of solar expertise and products as Germany, Japan,
or even Australia. Strides are beginning to be made, however. Ireland-based Surface
Power, a manufacturer of solar thermal products, formed a strategic partnership in 2010
with Florida-based Solar Energy Initiatives,181 a developer of solar PV installations. They
plan on establishing a distribution hub in South Carolina.182
There’s also movement on the imports front. In October 2010, Sovello AG, a PV
manufacturer based in Thalheim, Germany, received the approval certificates to sell its
modules to the UK, Australia, Ireland, Florida, and California. The approving agency in
California was Go Solar California, and the SEAI in Ireland. 183
The CEC recently approved seven solar power plant proposals, one of which was
the 664 MW Calico Solar Project planned for San Bernardino County. 184 Calico Solar is
a subsidiary of Houston, Texas-based Tessera Solar North America, itself a unit of
renewable-energy company NTR of Dublin, Ireland. NTR, unfortunately, appears to
have overextended itself financially, to say the least, as they’ve had to sell off their part
of the Calico project and the Imperial project, another proposed California-based solar
power plant.185 Ireland’s private sector alone is not sufficient yet to get SEAI’s ambitious
job done.
Finland
In the ACS/County/Residential category, five Finnish ancestry variables are
181

http://www.solarenergyinitiatives.com

182

Your Industry News. Aberdeen, UK: Red Mist Media Ltd. Ireland's Surface Power Signs
Major Strategic Partnership Agreement with Solar Energy Initiatives. 18 Mar 2010.
(http://www.yourindustrynews.com/ireland
%27s+surface+power+signs+major+strategic+partnership+agreement+with+solar+energy+initiati
ves_46759.html)
183

PV Magazine Online. Sovello modules now certified in Australia, Ireland, UK, Florida and
California. 03 Jan 2011. (http://www.pv-magazine.com/services/pressreleases/details/beitrag/sovello-modules-now-certified-in-australia--ireland--uk--florida--andcalifornia_100001889/)
184

Greenspace: Los Angeles Times Online. San Bernardino solar installation approved. 28 Oct
2010. (http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/greenspace/2010/10/calico-solar-installationapproved.html)
185

Irish Independent News Online (Independent.ie). Independent News & Media PLC: Dublin,
Ireland. Sun sets on NTR plan. 06 Mar 2011. (www.independent.ie/business/irish/sun-sets-onntr-plan-2567666.html)

51

among the highest r2 values. The United States and Finland seem to have a common
philosophy in regards to energy usage: according to Voutilainen, the energy use per
capita of Finland and the United States is roughly the same, and Finland is increasing its
nuclear capacity, even as other EU countries are decreasing theirs. 186 The forestry
industry is one of Finland’s largest, accounting for 30% of national electricity use. 187
Nevertheless, Finland is making advances towards more solar capacity, and is at least
willing to play host to other countries’ solar ambitions. In 2008, Israel-based Solel
opened a plant in Finland to produce parabolic solar reflectors. 188 Solel developed the
equipment design which was then built by Glaston,189 an international glass technology
company. Glaston itself moved its head office to Helsinki in 2011. 190
Examples of green Finnish architecture provide an exemplary model for the rest
of the world to follow. Eco-Viikki, for example, is called "the world's largest and most
ambitious green housing development." It features a university campus (the University
of Helsinki), marshland, livestock grazing areas, and 13,000 housing units, all designed
to produce a self-sufficient environment with reduced emissions, renewable energy
technology, gray-water systems to recycle sink and tub water, and land for residents to
grow their own food.191 It was the result of a long, collaborative and competitive process:
the final design of Eco-Viikki was chosen from a total of 91 received proposals. In
August 1994 the initial site was chosen from four candidates, construction began in
autumn 1998, and the last low-rise block of flats was completed in early autumn 2004. 192
186

Voutilainen, P. Developing energy policy for Europe: A Finnish perspective on energy
cooperation in the European Union. Energy Law Journal: 2008. Vol. 29, No. 1., pg. 121.
187

Statistics Finland. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Finland 1990-2005: National Inventory
Report to the UNFCCC. 15 Apr 2007. (http://www.stat.fi/tk/yr/fi_nir_150407.pdf)
188
Anonymous. IceNews.com. Commercial solar panel manufacturing plant opens in Finland.
21 Sep 2008. (http://www.icenews.is/index.php/2008/09/21/commercial-solar-panelmanufacturing-plant-opens-in-finland/)
189

http://www.glaston.net

190

Glaston Oyj Abp Company Announcement. Glaston Corporation’s head office to Helsinki. 31
May 2011. (https://newsclient.omxgroup.com/cdsPublic/viewDisclosure.action?
disclosureId=456244&messageId=555294)
191

Doherty, D. McClatchy-Tribune Business News: Washington, DC. Green-house effect. 30
Aug 2009.
192

City of Helsinki, Ministry of the Environment. Eco-Viikki: Aims, Implementation and Results.
2005. ISBN 952-473-455-9. (http://www.hel.fi/static/ksv/julkaisut/eco-viikki_en.pdf)

52

Figure 6. Eco-Viikki. Photo courtesy of the Ministry of the
Environment, City of Helsinki.
An integration of PV cells was tested on a multi-family building, where 200 m 2 of cells
were incorporated into balcony railings, producing up to 20 percent of the property's
needs.193
The Solar Decathlon spawned a European counterpart in 2010. The Finnish
entry, “Luukku House,” won first prize for architecture. 194 The home was made almost
exclusively of wood, Finland’s most abundant resource. The home’s high-efficiency
insulation was achieved using thick and tight insulation, and quadruple-glazed frameless
units fixed directly to the frame for windows. Energy-efficient equipment, grey water
recycling, and building materials with a low carbon footprint helped the home achieve a
low overall environmental footprint. 195 The home featured 9.01 kW of PV panels on the

193

Swedish Environmental Research Institute Ltd. European Sustainable Urban Development
Projects. Benchmark Study: Viikki.
(http://www.secureproject.org/download/18.360a0d56117c51a2d30800078421/Viikki_Finland.pd
f)
194

Alter, L. New York: Treehugger: a Discovery Company. Gorgeous Woodsy Finnish Entry in
Solar Decathlon Wins First Prize For Architecture. 24 June 2010.
(http://www.treehugger.com/files/2010/06/gorgeous-green-architecture-finnish-entry.php)
195

Meinhold, B., Inhabitat LLC. Finland unveils ultra-efficient energy positive Solar Decathlon
house. 10 June 2010. (http://inhabitat.com/finland-unveils-ultra-efficient-energy-positive-solardecathlon-house/)

53

roof.196 In the “Electrical Energy Balance” contest, Luukku finished ninth out of the 17
entrants in a close race.197
An earlier example of energy-efficient Finnish architecture is the IEA5 House in
Jakobstad (Pietarsaari) in Northwest Finland, a demonstration project named after the
agency that led to its creation, the International Energy Agency. 198 The house was built in
1993 with the goals of building a low energy house that used as little energy as possible,
as part of IEA’s Task 13 (advanced solar low-energy buildings). 199 The house did not
achieve the desired energy goals at first, but with further tinkering and technical
development it is now a nearly zero-energy building, with roof space sporting a solar PV
and a solar heat system. 200
The motorcycle
The motorcycle as means of transportation shows up frequently among the
highest r2 values of the Census 2000 variables. In the Census 2000/City/Non-Profit
category, the motorcycle as means of transportation to work for white workers 16 years
and older has the highest r2 value. (PCT065I012, r2 =0.48) In the Census
2000/City/Residential category, PCT065I012 has the seventh highest r 2 value of all
variables. In the Census 2000/County/Non-Profit category, PCT065A012 (White alone)
and PCT065G012 (Two or more races) have the fourth and sixth highest r 2 values,
196

Project manual, Team Finland. (http://www.sdeurope.org/wpcontent/uploads/downloads/2010/11/AAL_CDPM_2010-09-22.pdf)
197

SD Europe official website. Results 2010. (http://www.sdeurope.org/?
page_id=3141&lang=en#4); Luukku House’s official website is still up at
http://www.sdfinland.com.
198

Nieminen, J. Low-energy residential housing. Energy and Buildings: Vol. 21, Issue 3, 1994,
pp. 187-197.; Nieminen, J., VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland. Improving energy
efficiency is revolutionizing building in Finland. 18 Mar 2011.
(http://www.solarthermalmagazine.com/2011/03/18/improving-energy-efficiency-isrevolutionizing-building-in-finland/)
199

International Energy Agency, Solar Heating & Cooling Programme. Task 13: Advanced Solar
Low-Energy Buildings; Final Task Management Report - October 1996. Prepared by Anne Grete
Hestnes, Operating Agent for The Royal Ministry of Industry and Energy. (http://www.ieashc.org/outputs/task13/task13_advanced_solar_low_energy_buildings.pdf)
200

Ab Alf Slussnäs Oy website about IEA5 House. They are a Finnish heating, ventilation and
sanitation company. (http://www.alfslussnas.fi/en/lowenergy/IEA5); VTT website about IEA5
house. Jyri Nieminen, Customer Manager.
(http://www.vtt.fi/service/con/energiatehokkaat_ratkaisut.jsp?lang=en)

54

respectively. Among the top variables in the ACS 2005-2009, the following motorcyclerelated variable is 11th in the top r2 values of the ACS/County/Non-Profit category:
“Means of Transportation to Work for Workplace Geography (White alone, not Hispanic
or Latino): Taxicab, motorcycle, bicycle, or other means” (B08505H.4.6). Therefore,
riding a motorcycle to work rather than driving a car helps explain the installation of
solar PV in California.
The motorcycle is also the vehicle of choice among many environmental
activists. Jim Harvey from Chicago now lives in the Mojave Desert and works on behalf
of both solar power and preserving the desert environment, two goals he has found to be
mutually exclusive when it comes to siting industrial-scale solar power plants. In
particular, he opposes BrightSource Energy’s proposed $3 billion, 392 MW Ivanpah
Solar Electric Generating Station. Harvey also has found himself at odds with some of
the national environmental groups, whom he views as getting too cozy with the solar
energy companies.201 In his spare time he tinkers with a fleet of antique Harley-Davidson
motorcycles, and at regular intervals heads out to tour the West’s open roads on his bike,
often accompanied by his wife Catherine. 202
Solar power is making inroads into the motorcycle industry, or at least onto its
buildings. A Harley-Davidson dealership in Santa Barbara now has a 36 kW solar
installation on its roof. The system generates approximately 80% of the dealership's total
electrical load, with potential for future expansion. The dealership took advantage of the
City of Santa Barbara's fast-track permit program for solar PV systems, which resulted in
the approval of the installation plan and the issuance of a permit in only one week. This
was exciting news for Solar Electrical Systems, the installers of this PV system, which
usually has to wait about 90 days to receive a permit. 203 Meanwhile, California-based
201

The conflict over Ivanpah does have a happy ending, as the Center for Biological Diversity and
BrightSource representatives agreed to set land aside for the sake of the endangered desert
tortoise. Press release from the Center for Biological Diversity. Center for Biological Diversity
and BrightSource Commit to Desert Protections. 22 Oct 2010.
(http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/news/press_releases/2010/ivanpah-10-22-2010.html)
202

Lewis, J. High Country News: Paonia, CO. High noon. 11 May 2009.

203

Anonymous, renewableenergyworld.com. Santa Barbara Harley-Davidson Powers Up With
Kyocera Solar Modules. 16 Aug 2004.
(http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/partner/kyocera-solar-inc1786/news/article/2004/08/santa-barbara-harley-davidson-powers-up-with-kyocera-solarmodules-11747)

55

Solyndra provided a motorcycle parts warehouse in Germany with its unique brand of
solar PV system. It is the largest Solyndra system in Germany to date, and the second
largest Solyndra system worldwide. A local German company did the installation work
for Solyndra.204
Converting a fossil fuel-based motorcycle to solar-generated electric seems to be
relatively simple in engineering terms, and a rewarding hobby as well. Richard Gryzch
converted his motorcycle to run on solar and electric, with solar panels attached to the
cycle’s frame. His motorcycle has a range of 50 miles and can reach speeds of 90 mph,
both of which he plans on increasing in the near future. 205
All-electric motorcycles have already made it into the marketplace. Zero
Motorcycles of Scotts Valley, California boasts the cleanest recycling practices in the
industry, and note that their motorcycle “will produce less than one-eighth of the CO 2
pollution per mile at the power plant than a gas powered motorcycle.” 206 Portland,
Oregon-based MotoCzysz is trying to beat speed records with their E1pc electric
motorcycle.207 Motorcycle racetracks themselves also have the chance to make amends
for their carbon footprints. Infineon Raceway in Sonoma, California has installed 350
kW of solar power. A total of 1,652 panels were put in place around the track, and will
produce approximately 41 percent of Infineon’s power needs. 208

204

Anonymous, Green Energy News. Solyndra Cylindrical Photovoltaic (PV) System for
Motorcycle Parts Warehouse in Germany. 28 Oct 2010. (http://www.green-energynews.com/nwslnks/clips1010/oct10028.html)
205

June, L., engadget.com. DIY Solar Flyer motorcycle tearing around Phoenix, Arizona. 06
May 2009. (http://www.engadget.com/2009/05/06/diy-solar-flyer-motorcycle-tearing-aroundphoenix-arizona/#continued)
206

http://www.zeromotorcycles.com/cleanest.php

207

Procter, G. Motorcyclenews.com. 04 Jun 2009. Exclusive photo: finished MotoCzysz E1pc
revealed, claiming V-MAX-beating acceleration.
(http://www.motorcyclenews.com/MCN/News/newsresults/New-bikes/2009/June/jun0409-E1pcexclusive-picture/)
208

GetSolar staff, getsolar.com. California racetrack unveils solar plans. 23 Nov 2010.
(http://www.getsolar.com/News/California/Solar-Panels/California-Racetrack-Unveils-SolarPlans-800252650)

56

Germany
Most of the specific ancestries with the highest r 2 values (e.g., not general like
Northern European) generally didn’t stay high when moving from the Census 2000 to the
ACS 2005-2009. The variables for German ancestry, however, had r 2 values that were
fairly high, and showed a slight increase in moving from the Census 2000 to the ACS
2005-2009. This is perhaps a testament to their continued push to promote PV as a
domestic energy source; on the other hand, the r2 values would likely look different had
the Census 2000 data and the ACS 2005-2009 data been compared to different sets of PV
data in the regression tests.
As with Australia’s example, California and Germany have many solar PV
business links in common. Several companies have regional offices in both California
and Germany: Nanosolar,209 Soltecture,210 The Bosch Group,211 Q-Cells,212 SunPower,213
Trina Solar,214 Solar Frontier215 and SonnenWerft GmbH (Sundock in English).216 JA
Solar,217 one of the biggest producers of PV in 2010, is based in China but has offices in
both Munich, Germany and Milpitas, California.
To help promote the strengthening of business ties between California and
Germany, there is an annual conference created by the California branch of the German
American Chamber of Commerce called Germany California Solar Day. The seventh
Germany California Solar Day was held at UCLA’s Institute of the Environment on
September 27th, 2011.218 Woodrow Clark II, co-recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize
with Al Gore, gave the event's keynote address, saying "America needs to learn from
Germany and other nations about the Green Industrial Revolution that has already started
there and in parts of Asia."219 Among the German delegate solar companies in attendance
209

http://www.nanosolar.com
http://www.soltecture.com
211
http://www.bosch-solarenergy.com
212
http://northamerica.q-cells.com/en
213
http://us.sunpowercorp.com
214
http://www.trinasolar.com/eu
215
http://www.solar-frontier.com
216
http://www.sundock.net
217
http://www.jasolar.com
218
CleanTechies. 7th Germany California Solar Day | Los Angeles, CA.
(http://events.cleantechies.com/7th-germany-california-solar-day-los-angeles-ca/4843/)
210

219

German Chamber Network (AHK) press release. 7th Germany California Solar Day: Solar
Companies Explore Business Opportunities in Southern California. 27 Sep 2011.
(http://www.ahk-usa.com/en/events/san-francisco/single-view/events/germany-california-solar-

57

were Adler Solar Services GmbH, 220 GP Joule GmbH,221 hb Solar International GmbH,222
Lahmeyer International GmbH, 223 LCS Solarstrom AG,224 Loser Chemie GmbH,225 and
Orange Solar GmbH.226
Q-Cells, one German solar company that apparently didn’t need to attend, has
been selected by Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) as a “preferred partner” to help add
solar capacity in California’s Central Valley. Q-Cells and PG&E will collaborate on a
program called the utility-owned generation (UOG) program, involving 250 MW of
utility-owned solar to be developed over five years in 50 MW installments. 227 “Q-Cells’
partnership with PG&E is another example of our highly competitive solar PV solutions
for the North American market,” said Marc van Gerven, managing director of Q-Cells in
North America.228
Japan
There is only one variable in each census data set relating to Japan as the place of
birth for the foreign-born population. As with Germany, there were relatively consistent
r2 values between the Census 2000 and the ACS 2005-2009, but the trend was opposite
compared to Germany. The Japanese r2 values went slightly down where the German r2
values went slightly up. This could perhaps be interpreted as a testament to the slightly
less dominant PV market of Japan.
As with Australia and Germany, California and Japan have several solar
businesses in common. Even though Germany has installed more solar domestically, the
Earth Policy Institute found that Japan produced over 100 MW more solar in 2010 (2,169
day/?cHash=42ba39c031d33fc74bf998c109b0c4f4)
220

http://www.adlersolar.de
http://www.gp-joule.com
222
http://www.hbsolar.eu/en.html
223
http://www.lahmeyer.de
224
http://www.lcs-solar.com
225
http://www.loserchemie.de
226
http://www.orange-solar.de
227
Q-Cells press release. San Francisco, CA. Q-Cells Selected by PG&E as Preferred Partner
for Utility-Owned Generation Program: Q-Cells to Build 10 MW and 20 MW Solar Power Plants
for PG&E in California’s Central Valley. 17 Oct 2011. (http://northamerica.qcells.com/en/pressrelease/qcell_selected_by_pge_as_preferred_partner.html)
221

228

Osborne, M. PV Tech News. SPI: 2011: PG&E teams with Q-Cells on two solar power plants
in California. 17 Oct 2011. (http://www.pvtech.org/news/spi_2011_pge_teams_with_q_cells_on_two_solar_power_plants_in_california)

58

MW total) than did Germany (2,022 MW). 229 Japan is home to some of the largest, most
globally recognized companies that now dabble in solar PV production: Sharp, 230 SanyoPanasonic,231 Mitsubishi,232 Toshiba233 and Honda234 all now produce solar panels.
Kyocera is a Japanese company with offices in Scottsdale, Arizona, but they plan on
opening a manufacturing plant in San Diego by 2013. 235
Suntech Power236 is currently the world’s largest producer of solar panels. In
2010 they produced 5.8% of all new global solar PV for the year. 237 Their global
headquarters is located in Wuxi, China, but they have regional offices in every major PV
market, including Japan, Germany, and San Francisco.
Japan’s Eurus Energy Holdings Co. and Sharp are teaming up with NRG Energy
Inc. of the United States to build 45 MW solar farms in California. The power will be
sold to Pacific Gas & Electric for 20 years. Tokyo Electric Power Co. Inc., Asia's biggest
utility, owns 60 percent of Eurus Energy and trading firm Toyota Tsusho Corp. owns the
remaining 40 percent.238
However, it’s not strictly a one-way street with Japan always aiding California.
In the wake of the devastating tsunami that struck Japan following a massive earthquake
on March 11th, 2011, green energy entrepreneur Elon Musk is helping to rebuild a small
part of Japan’s energy infrastructure. Through his foundation, Musk has donated
229

An Excel spreadsheet of data is available at http://www.earthpolicy.org/datacenter/xls/indicator12_2011_all.xls.
230

http://www.sharpusa.com/SolarElectricity.aspx
http://us.sanyo.com/Solar; http://www.panasonic.com/industrial/solutions/alternativeenergy.aspx
232
http://www.mitsubishielectricsolar.com/; http://www.mitsubishielectric.com/bu/solar/
233
http://www.toshiba.co.jp/env/en/energy/solar.htm
234
http://world.honda.com/SolarCell/
235
Anonymous. The New Statesman: Blackfriars, UK. Kyocera to develop solar modules for US
market. 05 Mar 2010. (http://www.newstatesman.com/energy-and-clean-tech/2010/03/kyocerasolar-jobs-california)
231

236

http://www.suntech-power.com

237

SolarServer.com, Heindl Server GmbH. Top 10 PV producers (2010).
(http://www.solarserver.com/service/statistics-and-market-research/pv-overview/pvproducers.html)
238

Reuters. Japan's Eurus Energy joins in California solar boom. 27 Sep 2010.
(http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFTOE68Q05Q20100927)

59

$250,000 for a solar PV project to be built in Soma City in the Fukushima prefecture.
The PV plant will be sited on reclaimed industrial land not suitable for agriculture, and
the solar arrays will be made of panels manufactured in Japan. 239
Summary
Future versions of this study could be expanded in scope with a questionnaire
sent to a randomly selected sample of a given population as a strategy to confirm the
results of statistical analysis. In terms of ancestry and the foreign-born population, we
might expect to see high r2 values from China as they currently dominate the PV export
market, having produced over twice as much PV as Germany and Japan combined in
2010. More important, of course, is that solar PV be deployed to the fullest extent
possible on the one hand, and on the other hand to collectively reduce our “footprints” as
much as possible, be they electrical, carbon-based, or otherwise. In a more ideal world,
the Solar Decathlon would be redundant, and a study like this one unnecessary.

239

SolarServer.com, Heindl Server GmbH. Elon Musk donates solar PV project to Soma City in
Fukushima prefecture, Japan. 03 Aug 2011. (http://www.solarserver.com/solar-magazine/solarnews/current/2011/kw31/elon-musk-donates-solar-pv-project-to-soma-city-in-fukushimaprefecture-japan.html)

60

CHAPTER SIX
CONCLUSIONS
While the large up-front cost of solar PV remains a barrier to its widespread use,
there are still some facts in solar’s favor. First, enough sunlight hits the earth every 40
minutes to equal every person’s power usage for a year. Second, according to the
American Solar Energy Society, fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas are being
depleted at a rate 100,000 times faster than they are being formed. 240 And while basic
economic theory tells us that a resource that becomes scarce, like fossil fuels, increases in
price and leads to the seeking out and use of alternatives, economists do not usually
consider that 1) the environment in which the resource has been used becomes too toxic
to live in, and 2) as the resource becomes more and more scarce, and the price of the
resource approaches infinity in response, the marketplace and the rest of society might
not react calmly in response, while scrambling to seek out and use alternatives.
Embracing solar PV as a serious alternative for electrical generation may prevent either
of those scenarios from becoming a reality.
The statistical analysis presented in this thesis found that mostly white, middle
class individuals in California who have rejected its “commuter class” mentality have
responded the most to the PV rebate program. As a potential marketing strategy for PV
manufacturers, for example, should any single demographic therefore be exclusively
catered to? The administrators of the California Solar Initiative don’t think so. A portion
of the CSI budget is set aside to put PV on the homes of poor people; on the other hand,
only to the tune of 10% of the program budget, or $216 million. And perhaps attempting
to address income equality through PV isn’t necessarily a good idea just yet: the census
data says that the fastest growing income groups in California from 2000 to (ACS) 20052009 are those making $75,000 or more a year. However, this may not take into account
the global economic meltdown in the fall of 2008.
Of course it is now possible to bypass the whim of the potential PV consumer
entirely through building-integrated PV and new industrial-scale PV plants on the
horizon. Recently, the Department of Energy announced a $1.4 billion partial loan
guarantee to support the launch of Project Amp, a rooftop solar program for warehouses
240

Graves, S. The Press Democrat: Santa Rosa, CA. Solar power alternative cuts bills; Even in
Winter, photovoltaic systems can provide adequate energy for homes. [City edition] 25 Jan 2003.

61

and distribution centers across the U.S. The money will allow Prologis, 241 a developer of
industrial real estate, to install enough PV on some of its warehouses and distribution
centers to generate 733 MW of power over four years. The buildings themselves don’t
use a lot of energy, and the excess energy will be fed back to the grid. U.S. Energy
Secretary Steven Chu said, "...Project Amp will create at least a thousand jobs across the
U.S. and increase our global competitiveness in the clean energy race.” 242
Solar photovoltaic technology has sufficiently matured to the point of costing the
same or less than fossil fuel-based forms of electricity generation. Even so, there’s still
more room for improvements on the horizon. The average conversion efficiency of solar
panels today is about 10-16%. The problem is that the majority of electrons hitting the
panels “thermalize,” making them unusable for converting to electricity. Hot carrier solar
cell technology is attempting to change all that. By extracting electrons before
thermalization, the photovoltage can be increased, reaching conversion efficiencies as
high as 68%.243
The National Renewable Energy Lab has a large database online (the NCPV
Hotline244) detailing solar PV projects that are getting approved all around the world. For
nations, cities and municipalities, it has now become a race to become the eco-friendliest
of all. Washington State can surely follow suit. As Olympia-based South Sound Solar
notes on their website, “We have 70% of the sun that Germany, the leading user of solar
does. We have some of the best incentives in the country, and solar panels are actually
more efficient in cooler climates.”245 Eastern Washington, which is much sunnier than
Western Washington, could surely host some SEGS-style power plants. Or perhaps the
Arizona Public Service model for off-grid customers mentioned earlier could be
241

http://www.prologis.com

242

ENR Mountain States: Denver, CO. (a division of McGraw-Hill) NREL Program turns
warehouses into rooftop solar powerhouses. 20 Jul 2011.
(http://mountainstates.construction.com/mountainstates_construction_firms/2011/0720NRELProgramTurnsWarehousesIntoRooftopSolarPowerhouses.asp?page=2)
243

Stanford University Global Climate & Energy Project. Abstract: Hot Carrier Solar Cell:
Implementation of the Ultimate Photovoltaic Converter. Issued September 2008.
(http://gcep.stanford.edu/research/factsheets/hotcarriersolarcell.html)
244

http://www.nrel.gov/pv/news_hotline.html

245

http://southsoundsolar.com/products/faqs/

62

implemented in Eastern Washington, as the population density rapidly decreases away
from a few crowded cities.246
In general, things are moving and changing so fast in the PV field right now, that
deep analysis of long term trends is in short supply. As PaceNOW observed about
Property-Assessed Clean Energy programs, “As more programs are launched and as
existing programs mature, additional data will emerge to help further analyze the
economic impact of PACE.”247 The same can currently be said of most American PV
incentive programs and their respective impacts, economic, environmental or otherwise.
California’s PV incentive program has clearly been successful at deploying PV
onto residential rooftops. To reiterate from earlier, California remains in the throes of an
exponential growth in PV installations, with an expectation of growth from around 500
per year in 2000 to 50,000 by the end of the decade. Obviously, exponential growth of
most things cannot continue forever, but solar PV still has a large market to fill: in 2008,
solar accounted for less than 1 percent of global electricity generation. 248 Given this small
market share, PV’s downstream benefits of job growth and a cleaner environment will
probably also be hard to measure, or justify in the shadow of the larger, entrenched
players like oil and nuclear. Further growth of solar PV will be dependent on
government subsidy of one form or another far into the unforeseeable future, as the
technology is still unable to produce vast enough amounts of energy to fuel its own selfsustaining growth.
But based on the experiences of Germany and Japan, one can say that if a
government stays committed to funding the manufacture and domestic deployment of
PV, the more PV they will end up having in the long run. Japan subsidized the
deployment of PV from 1994 to 2004, and currently has only 9% of global solar PV
capacity. Germany has continued to subsidize PV since 1989, and they now have 44% of
246

A low-detail population map of Washington State counties is available at
http://www.ofm.wa.gov/pop/popden/histmaps.pdf. A set of much higher-detail maps of each
county are available at http://www.ecy.wa.gov/services/gis/maps/county/popden/popden-co.htm.
247

PaceNOW. Property Assessed Clean Energy (“Pace”) Programs White Paper: Helping
achieve environmental sustainability and energy independence, improving homeowner cash flow
and credit profile, protecting mortgage lenders, and creating jobs. 22 Apr 2010.
(http://votesolar.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/PACE-White-Paper.pdf)
248

The Pew Center on Global Climate Change. Solar Power (Quick Facts).
(http://www.pewclimate.org/technology/factsheet/solar#_ednref2)

63

global solar PV capacity, the most of any country in the world. 249 A similar study to the
one presented in this thesis done with Germany instead of California might provide
valuable insights on what California should do in the future, especially if there exists
detailed data that chronicles Germany’s many years of solar experience.

249

Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century (Ren21). Renewables 2011: Global
Status Report. (http://www.ren21.net/Portals/97/documents/GSR/GSR2011_Master18.pdf, page
23)

64

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76

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LCS Solarstrom AG. (PV manufacturer) Coesfeld, Germany. (http://www.lcssolar.com)
Loser Chemie (developer and distributor of environmentally-friendly products, they
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(http://www.loserchemie.de)
MMA Renewable Ventures: a MuniMae company (finance company specializing in
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(http://www.mmarenewableventures.com)
Mitsubishi (manufacturer of PV and many, many other products). Tokyo, Japan.
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Mr. Sun Solar (solar contractor). Portland, Oregon. (http://www.mrsunsolar.com)
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Orange Solar (PV installer). Bönnigheim, Germany. (http://www.orange-solar.de)
Oshara Village (eco-friendly housing development). Santa Fe, New Mexico.
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PaceNOW blog (non-profit organization). (http://pacenow.org/blog)
77

Panasonic (manufacturer of PV and many other products). Osaka, Japan.
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Porterville Unified School District. Porterville, California. (http://phsaero.portervilleschools.org)
Power NI (Northern Ireland). Plug in The Sun for an Eco New Year!
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Sharp Solar (PV manufacturer). Osaka, Japan; American PV manufacturing facility in
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Shawsheen Valley Technical High School. Billerica, Massachusetts.
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Solar Frontier (PV manufacturer). Tokyo, Japan; Santa Clara, California.
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Soltecture GmbH (PV manufacturer). Berlin, Germany; Santa Monica, California.
(http://www.soltecture.com)
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q=node/17)
Stanford Solar and Wind Energy Project: Stanford University Solar Initiative (SUSI)
Google Group. Stanford University: Stanford, California.
(http://groups.google.com/group/swep-pvproject)
State of California, California Energy Commission, and California Public Utilities
Commission. Go Solar California: the California Solar Initiative. What Do I Do Next?
Step 1: Energy Efficiency Audit. (http://www.gosolarcalifornia.ca.gov/csi/step1.php)
SunDock (SonnenWerft) (PV manufacturer). Hannover, Germany.
(http://www.sundock.net)
SunEdison (PV installer). Belmont, California. (http://www.sunedison.com)
SunPower (PV manufacturer). San Jose, California. (http://us.sunpowercorp.com)
Suntech Unlimited (PV manufacturer). Wuxi, China. (http://www.suntech-power.com)
Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland. (http://www.seai.ie)
Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland. Strategic Plan 2010-2015.
(http://www.seai.ie/Publications/SEAI_Publications/SEAI_5yr_strategy.pdf)
Sydney 2030 (plan for ‘greening’ the city of Sydney). Sydney, Australia.
(http://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/2030/theplan)
Toshiba (manufacturer of PV and many other products). Tokyo, Japan.
(http://www.toshiba.co.jp/env/en/energy/solar.htm)
Trina Solar (PV manufacturer). Zurich, Switzerland; Changzhou, Jiangsu, China; San
Jose, California. (http://www.trinasolar.com/eu)
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: Green Power Partnership. Solar Power
Purchase Agreements. Washington, DC.
(http://www.epa.gov/greenpower/buygp/solarpower.htm)
VKR Holding (green-building investment company). Hørsholm, Denmark.
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(http://www.vkr-holding.com)
VTT website about IEA5 house. Jyri Nieminen, Customer Manager.
(http://www.vtt.fi/service/con/energiatehokkaat_ratkaisut.jsp?lang=en)
Zero Motorcycles (electric motorcycle manufacturer). Scotts Valley, California.
(http://www.zeromotorcycles.com/cleanest.php)

Data
California Solar Statistics: Current CSI data.
(http://www.californiasolarstatistics.ca.gov/current_data_files/)
California Solar Statistics: Archived data.
(http://www.californiasolarstatistics.ca.gov/archived_data_files/)
Profiles of General Demographic Characteristics: 2000 Census of Population and
Housing - California. Issued May 2001.
(http://www2.census.gov/census_2000/datasets/demographic_profile/California/2kh06.pd
f)
U.S. Census Bureau. Summary File 3 data files for California, Census 2000.
(http://www2.census.gov/census_2000/datasets/Summary_File_3/California/)
U.S. Census Bureau. Microsoft Access file for using the California 2000 SF3 files.
(http://www.census.gov/support/2000/SF3/Acc2000.zip)
U.S. Census Bureau. California ACS 2005-2009 data files.
(http://www2.census.gov/acs2009_5yr/summaryfile/20052009_ACSSF_By_State_All_Tables/
California_All_Geographies_Not_Tracts_Block_Groups.zip)
U.S. Census Bureau. Table for using and referencing the California ACS 2005-2009 data
files. (http://www2.census.gov/acs2009_5yr/summaryfile/
Sequence_Number_and_Table_Number_Lookup.xls)
U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey Foreign-Born Regions, Subregions,
and Country Code List.
(http://www.census.gov/acs/www/Downloads/data_documentation/CodeLists/Foreign_C
ountry_Code_List_062310.pdf)
Map of Pennsylvania Dutch in the United States, Census Bureau 2000. Valparaiso
University Online. (http://www.valpo.edu/geomet/pics/geo200/pct_pa_german.pdf)

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APPENDIX A
Getting variable names for the California Census 2000 data, and for ACS 2005-2009 data

Census 2000
1) The California Census 2000 Summary File 3 files are available online at
http://www2.census.gov/census_2000/datasets/Summary_File_3/California.
2) Download and unzip Acc2000.zip from
http://www.census.gov/support/2000/SF3/Acc2000.zip.
3) Open the file SF3.mdb with Microsoft Access.
4) In the ‘Tables’ window on the left, scroll down to the “Tables” table at the bottom of
the list.
5) Open the “Tables” table. You will see a list of alphanumeric codes under the
‘FieldNum’ column, with descriptions of their Census categories under the ‘Text’
column. Export the table as an Excel spreadsheet.

ACS 2005-2009
The alphanumeric codes for the ACS 2005-2009 files are in an Excel spreadsheet
(Sequence_Number_and_Table_Number_Lookup.xls) which is available online at
http://www2.census.gov/acs2009_5yr/summaryfile/.

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APPENDIX B
ABBREVIATIONS / ACRONYMS

AC - alternating current
ACS - American Community Survey (http://www.census.gov/acs/www/)
ARENA - The Australian Renewable Energy Agency
Berkeley FIRST - Financing Initiative for Renewable and Solar Technology
BiPV - Building-integrated photovoltaics
CEC - California Energy Commission
CPUC - California Public Utilities Commission
CSI - California Solar Initiative (http://www.gosolarcalifornia.ca.gov/csi/index.php)
CSV - Comma-Separated Values
DC - direct current
DETI - Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment (Northern Ireland)
EPBB - Expected Performance-Based Buydown
EU - European Union
EV - electric vehicle
FiT - Feed-in Tariff
GHG - greenhouse gases
GmbH - Gesellschaft mit beschränkter Haftung (“German company”)
GW - gigawatt
kW - kilowatt
LEED - Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design
LIEE - Low Income Energy Efficiency program
MASH - Multifamily Affordable Solar Housing program
MW - megawatt
OPEC - Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (http://www.opec.org)
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PACE - Property-Assessed Clean Energy
PG&E - Pacific Gas and Electric
PPA - power purchase agreement
PSE&G - Public Service Electric & Gas Company
PV - photovoltaic
RET - Renewable Energy Target (Australia)
SASH - Single-family Affordable Solar Housing program
SCE - Southern California Edison
SDG&E - San Diego Gas & Electric Company
SEGS - Solar Energy Generating Systems
SEAI - Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland
SEIA - Solar Energy Industries Association (http://www.seia.org)
SF3 - Summary File 3 (Census)
SUSI - Stanford University Solar Initiative
SWEP - Stanford Solar & Wind Energy Project
UOG - Utility-Owned Generation
VNM - Virtual Net Metering

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